贛江流域旱澇時(shí)空變化特征研究

doi:10.3969/2014jms.0010

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贛江流域旱澇時(shí)空變化特征研究
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                        10.3969/2014jms.0010
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:中國氣象局氣候變化專項(xiàng)(CCSF201319)

Research on spatial-temporal variation of drought and flood events over Ganjiang basin

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基于贛江流域40個(gè)氣象站點(diǎn)1966—2005年的月降水、氣溫資料, 采用多時(shí)間尺度的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化降水蒸散指數(shù)反映不同時(shí)間尺度的旱澇狀況。再應(yīng)用小波分析和GIS空間分析技術(shù), 對(duì)其旱澇特征進(jìn)行定量化分析, 闡述其時(shí)空變化格局。結(jié)果表明:40 a共出現(xiàn)6次中旱以上級(jí)別的干旱事件, 7次中澇以上級(jí)別的雨澇事件。在流域旱澇演變過程中主要存在3類尺度的周期變化規(guī)律。通過小波方差檢驗(yàn)得出10 a時(shí)間尺度的周期振蕩最強(qiáng)烈, 為該指數(shù)時(shí)間變化的第一主周期。重澇主要分布在贛江流域南部, 而重旱主要分布在西南地區(qū)。季節(jié)性旱澇變化以夏澇最為嚴(yán)重, 主要分布在流域總出口, 即南昌、豐城一帶, 而伏旱、秋旱波及范圍較大, 持續(xù)時(shí)間較長(zhǎng)。

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Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data from 40 meteorological stations in Ganjiang basin during 1966—2005, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at different time scales is used to reflect the status of drought and flood event at different time scales, the temporal-spatial patterns of drought and flood events are analyzed with wavelet analysis and GIS spatial technology. The results show that the drought and flood events above moderate level during the past 40 years occurred 6 and 7 times, respectively. In the evolution process of the drought and flood in the basin, three main periodic changes existed. Verification from wavelet variance suggests that periodic oscillation around 10 years is the most intense, which is the first main cycle of the long term change over Ganjiang basin. Heavy flood events areas are mainly in the southern Ganjiang basin, while the heavy droughts primarily happen in the southwest region. Flood events in summer is the most serious and located in the outlet of the Ganjiang basin near Nanchang and Fengcheng. However, droughts in summer and autumn distribute wider and last longer.

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張余慶,項(xiàng)瑛,陳昌春,危潤(rùn)初.贛江流域旱澇時(shí)空變化特征研究.氣象科學(xué),2015,35(3):346-352 ZHANG Yuqing, XIANG Ying, CHEN Changchun, WEI Runchu. Research on spatial-temporal variation of drought and flood events over Ganjiang basin. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(3):346-352

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收稿日期:2013-09-12
最后修改日期:2014-01-04
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-07-03
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