西南地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)旱情的氣象干旱指數(shù)適應(yīng)性研究

doi:10.3969/2014jms.0034

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西南地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)旱情的氣象干旱指數(shù)適應(yīng)性研究
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                        10.3969/2014jms.0034
                    
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基金項目:國家重點基礎(chǔ)研究發(fā)展計劃項目(2012CB955903);江蘇省高校自然科學(xué)研究重大項目(13KJA170002);江蘇高校優(yōu)勢學(xué)科建設(shè)工程項目(PAPD)

Research on the adaptability of meteorological arid index of agricultural drought in Southwest China

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利用西南地區(qū)60站1961—2011年的日平均氣溫、降水量資料求得半年尺度的氣象干旱指數(shù)值,包括帕爾默干旱指數(shù)、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化降水干旱指數(shù)、Z指數(shù)、降水距平百分率指數(shù)。采用超前相關(guān)、相似和技巧評分兩種計算方法檢測與西南地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)情最適宜的氣象干旱指數(shù)?；谧钸m宜的干旱指數(shù),給出西南地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害可能發(fā)生的風(fēng)險分布。結(jié)果表明:Z指數(shù)定義的冬半年氣象干旱對西南地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)旱情的指示性較其他3種氣象干旱指標(biāo)更優(yōu)。冬半年Z指數(shù)小于等于-0.84時引發(fā)的西南地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害成災(zāi)率大于8%的風(fēng)險平均達(dá)0.53,農(nóng)業(yè)干旱絕收率大于5%的風(fēng)險平均達(dá)0.37,風(fēng)險最大地區(qū)位于貴州西北部。結(jié)論有助于深入認(rèn)識氣象干旱指數(shù)與農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)情的聯(lián)系,對于西南地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)干旱的檢測預(yù)測有一定的應(yīng)用價值。

Abstract:

By using the daily mean temperature and precipitation data from 60 observation stations in Southwest China from 1961 to 2011, the half-year scale meteorological drought index values, including Palmer drought index, standardized rainfall drought index, Z index and precipitation anomalies percentage, are collected. Methods of lead correlation, similarity and skill score are adopted to detect the most suitable meteorological drought index related to the agricultural disasters in Southwest China, based on which, the possible risk distribution of agricultural drought disasters in Southwest China is obtained. The results show that the meteorological drought in winter half-year defined by Z index is much more indicative on the agricultural drought in Southwest China than the other three kinds of meteorological drought indexes; when Z index in winter half year is ≤-0.84, its raising risks of the >8% agricultural drought disaster rate and the >5% agricultural drought crop failure rate amount to 0.53 and 0.37, respectively, and the highest risk area is in the Northwest Guizhou. The conclusion not only help to know the connection between the meteorological drought index and agricultural drought disaster thoroughly, but has certain application value in the detection and prediction of agricultural drought in Southwest China.

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何俊琦,余錦華,高歌,王靜.西南地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)旱情的氣象干旱指數(shù)適應(yīng)性研究.氣象科學(xué),2015,35(4):454-461 HE Junqi, YU Jinhua, GAO Ge, WANG Jing. Research on the adaptability of meteorological arid index of agricultural drought in Southwest China. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(4):454-461

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收稿日期:2013-11-27
最后修改日期:2014-04-04
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-09-11
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