西南地區(qū)極端降水變化趨勢(shì)

doi:10.3969/2014jms.0084

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西南地區(qū)極端降水變化趨勢(shì)
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                        10.3969/2014jms.0084
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(41275079;41405069);國(guó)家科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2009BAC51B03);國(guó)家青年科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(41305077)

Extreme precipitation trend of Southwest China in recent 41 years

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摘要:

利用西南地區(qū)90個(gè)氣象臺(tái)站1970-2010年逐日降水量資料,依據(jù)世界氣象組織(WMO)定義的連續(xù)5d最大降水量、總降水量、強(qiáng)降水比等6種極端降水指數(shù),采用F檢驗(yàn)、11a滑動(dòng)平均等統(tǒng)計(jì)方法,研究了西南地區(qū)極端強(qiáng)降水變化趨勢(shì)的時(shí)空變化特征。在時(shí)間上,西南地區(qū)近41年來(lái)冬、春、夏季連續(xù)5d最大降水量緩慢波動(dòng)上升,秋季連續(xù)5d最大降水量呈下降趨勢(shì);強(qiáng)降水、降水強(qiáng)度及強(qiáng)降水比呈上升趨勢(shì),但總降水量和最長(zhǎng)持續(xù)無(wú)降水日數(shù)呈減少趨勢(shì);另外,各極端降水指數(shù)還存在明顯的年際、年代際變化。在空間上,西南地區(qū)極端降水變化趨勢(shì)具有顯著的地域差異,呈東西或西北東南向梯度變化特征。其中冬季連續(xù)5d最大降水量、降水強(qiáng)度、強(qiáng)降水比及最長(zhǎng)持續(xù)無(wú)降水日數(shù),在西南大部分地區(qū)呈增加趨勢(shì)。秋季連續(xù)5d最大降水量與總降水量在西南大部分地區(qū)呈減少趨勢(shì)。而春、夏季連續(xù)5d最大降水量和強(qiáng)降水的增減區(qū)域大致相當(dāng)。

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data from 90 meteorological stations in Southwest China during 1970-2010, six extreme precipitation indices defined by the World Meteorological Organization such as RX5d,ATP, PPER, et al were used to analyze the temporal and spatial distributions of variation trend of extreme strong precipitation in Southwest China with methods like F test, 11-year moving average. Results indicated that in time scale the trend of RX5d(December-February;March-May;June-August) in Southwest China increased slowly, but decreased in September-November. R95p,SDII and PPER showed increasing trend, but ATP and CDD showed decreasing trend.Moreover, each extreme precipitation indice presented obvious interannual and interdecadal variations. In spatial scale, the extreme precipitation trend in Southwest China presents obvious geographical difference of gradient change from east to west or northwest to southeast. There existed significantly increasing trend of RX5d(December-February),SDII,PPER and CDD in most of Southwest China, but presented decreasing trend of ATP and RX5d(September-November) in most of Southwest China. The increasing/decreasing areas of RX5d(March-August)and ATP are appreximately equivalent.

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羅玉,范廣洲,周定文,華維,李金建.西南地區(qū)極端降水變化趨勢(shì).氣象科學(xué),2015,35(5):581-586 LUO Yu, FAN Guangzhou, ZHOU Dingwen, HUA Wei, LI Jinjian. Extreme precipitation trend of Southwest China in recent 41 years. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(5):581-586

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收稿日期:2014-05-16
最后修改日期:2014-09-30
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-11-13
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