西北太平洋熱帶氣旋移動方向變化異常的環(huán)流特征

doi:10.3969/2015jms.0068

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西北太平洋熱帶氣旋移動方向變化異常的環(huán)流特征
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                        10.3969/2015jms.0068
                    
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基金項目:國家自然科學基金資助項目(41575083,41375098)

Circulation characteristics of track variation anomaly of tropical cyclone in the northwestern Pacific

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基于中國氣象局和上海臺風研究所整編的1972-2011年熱帶氣旋(TC)best-track資料,采用極端天氣氣候事件定義的百分位法確定TC移動方向異常變化的閾值,利用Lanczos濾波法將大氣環(huán)流分解成為季節(jié)內振蕩(MJO)、準兩周振蕩(QBW)和天氣3種尺度環(huán)流場,研究這3種尺度環(huán)流對熱帶氣旋在南海地區(qū)異常北折的影響。結果表明:近40 a的資料統(tǒng)計顯示,熱帶氣旋12 h內移向逆時針方向偏轉50°以及順時針方向偏轉47°為TC移動方向變化的95%分位數(shù)值,將12 h移動方向變化大于該數(shù)值的TC定義為移動方向變化異常。TC異常路徑平均每年發(fā)生2.68次,9月份發(fā)生的概率最大,約為7%,最常發(fā)生在南海海域。分析3個發(fā)生在南海地區(qū)熱帶氣旋異常北折的引導氣流發(fā)現(xiàn),在TC轉向前,向西的引導氣流緯向速度減慢,經向分量先向南加速,隨后突然轉為向北加速。天氣尺度對應的引導氣流對TC異常右偏影響最為明顯,對流層中高層熱帶氣旋中心東南側強天氣尺度西南氣流引導TC異常右偏。

Abstract:

Based on the best-track datasets of the tropical cyclone(TC) from 1972 to 2011 reoganized by China Meteorological Administration(CMA) and Shanghai Typhoon Institute(STI), the threshold of TC track variation anomaly was determined by percentile method defined by extreme events; the atmospheric circulation was divided into Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO),quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBW) and synoptic scale components by Lanczos filter method, moreover,the influences of the above three circulation scales on the abnormal northward of TC over South China Sea were also analyzed in this paper. Results showed that based on 40 years of statistical data, the TC with an anticlockwise deflection more than 50° or with a clockwise deflection more than 47° within 12 hours is defined as 95% quantile of TC abnormal direction change. TC abnormal direction changes on the average reached 2.68 times a year and it generally occurred in the South China Sea with the 7% highest probability in September. The analysis on the steering component of three abnormally northward turning TC over the South China Sea found that before TC turning, the zonal velocity of westward steering component slowed down and the meridional component speeded up firstly southward, then suddenly turned to the north.The synoptic scale steering had the most obvious effect on the anomalous right-turning, and the synoptic-scale southwest steering component on the southeast side of TC center in the upper troposphere made the TC moving northward abnormally.

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周宜卿,余錦華.西北太平洋熱帶氣旋移動方向變化異常的環(huán)流特征.氣象科學,2015,35(6):720-727 ZHOU Yiqing, YU Jinhua. Circulation characteristics of track variation anomaly of tropical cyclone in the northwestern Pacific. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(6):720-727

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收稿日期:2014-12-11
最后修改日期:2015-05-05
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2016-01-18
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