地基GPS/PWV在降水過程中的突變與緩變性特征

doi:10.3969/2015jms.0018

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地基GPS/PWV在降水過程中的突變與緩變性特征
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                        10.3969/2015jms.0018
                    
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基金項目:江蘇省自然科學(xué)基金(BK20131459);江蘇省科技支撐計劃(BE2013730);公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專項(GYHY201206004);國家科技支撐計劃項目(2011BAK21B04)

Mutation and gradual variation characteristics of ground-based GPS/PWV during precipitation

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摘要:

用江蘇省2009-2011年57個地基GPS/MET監(jiān)測網(wǎng)獲取的逐時大氣可降水量(PWV)和同期降水及JMA(Japan Meteorological Agency)再分析資料,探討了PWV的日際和逐時變化與不同時間尺度和強度的降水間的關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明:PWV日際變化與降水日變化具有顯著相似的形態(tài)特征和演變趨勢,兩者存在較為一致的同步性,總體呈單峰分布,強降水集中期對應(yīng)著PWV最大時段;PWV在入梅和梅汛期內(nèi)強降水過程中存在明顯突變現(xiàn)象,并提煉了以GPS/PWV突變事件為依據(jù)的入梅和梅雨期暴雨預(yù)報指標(biāo);在不同強度的降水過程中,PWV值域局限在一個特定量值區(qū)間,其中20 mm/h以下各級強度降水對應(yīng)PWV區(qū)別明顯,GPS/PWV值對應(yīng)的特定量值隨降水強度增大而增大,但20 mm/h以上的各級強降水對應(yīng)PWV特定量值區(qū)別較小;在短時強降水的預(yù)報中,除充分的水汽條件外,其強度將取決于天氣系統(tǒng)對周邊水汽的輻合能力和將入流水汽抬升而成云致雨的動力條件;降水發(fā)生前存在水汽的連續(xù)、緩變蓄積過程,蓄積過程至少可推前12 h。

Abstract:

Based on the hourly atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV), the rainfall amount in the same period and Japan Meteorological Agency (JWA) reanalysis data from 57 ground-based GPS/MET monitoring net during 2009-2011 in Jiangsu province, the relation between the diurnal, hourly variation of PWV and the precipitation with different time scales and intensities was preliminarily discussed. Results showed that firstly, the diurnal variation of PWV had significant similar morphological characteristics and evolution trend with the daily variation of precipitation, both of which had a synchronous consistency and a unimodal distribution was obvious, the precipitation centralized period corresponded to the maximum period of PWV. Secondly, at the beginning and during the Meiyu period, an obvious mutation apeared in PWV and the forecasting index of heavy rainfall was developed, based on the GPS/PWV mutation events. Thirdly, in the processes of precipitation with different intensities, PWV value was limited in specific range. For the precipitation amount below 20 mm/h, their corresponding PWV were obviously different. With the precipitation intensity strengthening, the corresponding specific value of GPS/PWV increased. However, for the precipitation amount over 20 mm/h, their corresponding PWV were almost similar. Fourthly, in short-term rainfall forecasting, the rainfall intensity not only depended on abundant water vapor, but on the surrounding water vapor convergence ability of weather system and the dynamic condition of cloud and rainfall formation by uplifting the inflow of water vapor. Finally, precipitation had a continuous, gradual accumulation process of water vapor, which would at least last 12 hours.

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吳海英,曾明劍,張備,周鵬,王易.地基GPS/PWV在降水過程中的突變與緩變性特征.氣象科學(xué),2015,35(6):775-782 WU Haiying, ZENG Mingjian, ZHANG Bei, ZHOU Peng, WANG Yi. Mutation and gradual variation characteristics of ground-based GPS/PWV during precipitation. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(6):775-782

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收稿日期:2015-01-15
最后修改日期:2015-03-16
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