2013年影響海南熱帶氣旋異常偏多成因分析

doi:10.3969/2014jms.0089

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2013年影響海南熱帶氣旋異常偏多成因分析
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                        10.3969/2014jms.0089
                    
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基金項目:中國氣象局氣象關鍵技術集成與應用項目(CMAGJ2013M39);海南省重點科技計劃應用研究及產(chǎn)業(yè)化項目(ZDXM20130081)

Abnormal Abundant Causes of Tropical Cyclone in Hainan Island in 2013

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利用1983-2013年熱帶氣旋年鑒、NCEP/NCAR全球再分析格點資料及國家氣候中心74項環(huán)流指數(shù)資料等,統(tǒng)計分析了近30a西太平洋以及影響海南的熱帶氣旋特征,并對2013年西太平洋熱帶氣旋偏多、秋臺集中以及影響海南熱帶氣旋偏多的異常特征從天氣學等方面進行了分析。結果表明,副熱帶高壓、夏季風、越赤道氣流、海表溫度及北半球極渦等環(huán)流系統(tǒng)異常,是形成2013年西太平洋熱帶氣旋偏多的主要原因。南半球冷高壓發(fā)展激發(fā)越赤道氣流增強,引發(fā)赤道西風加強;副熱帶高壓偏北偏弱,夏季風增強,副高南側熱帶輻合帶對流活躍;南海-西太平洋海表溫度偏高;極渦偏弱偏西,經(jīng)向環(huán)流偏弱,中緯度冷空氣活動不頻繁等。多條件共同作用,有利于西太平洋熱帶氣旋的生成。另外,副高呈東西向分布,南海海表溫度偏高使得南海及菲律賓以東生成的熱帶氣旋易于向西移動影響海南。

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Based on the yearbook of tropical cyclone data from 1983 to 2013,the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the 74 circulation indexes of the former year published by the Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Division of the National Climate Center, this paper statistically analyzes the features of the TC generated in the Western Pacific as well as TCs influenced Hainan in the past thirty years and clarifies the reason of the abnormal characteristics why the tropical cyclones generating in the Western Pacific in 2013 were more than the perennial, and more TCs appeared in the autumn and affected Hainan. The results show that the anomaly of subtropical high, summer monsoon, cross-equatorial flow, sea surface temperature and Northern hemisphere polar vortex were the main reason of the more tropical cyclones in 2013. By the development of the cold high in the southern hemisphere the strengthened cross-equatorial flow made the equatorial westerly wind intensified. The convection in the Inter-Tropical Convergent Zone (ITCZ) on the south of subtropical high was active because the subtropical high was weak and located northward and the summer monsoon was strong. The sea surface temperature was higher in South China sea-Western Pacific than surrounding sea. The polar vortex was weak and westerly and meridional and zonal circulation was also weak. The cold air in the mid-latitude areas was infrequent. These all circulation conditions are conducive to the formation of tropical cyclones in Western Pacific. In additional, east-west subtropical high and higher sea surface temperature in South China sea made the TCs generating in South China sea and eastern ocean of the Philippine easy to move west to affect Hainan.

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朱晶晶,趙小平,吳慧,吳勝安,邱明宇.2013年影響海南熱帶氣旋異常偏多成因分析.氣象科學,2016,36(2):262-268 ZHU Jingjing, ZHAO Xiaoping, WU Hui, WU Shengan, QIU Mingyu. Abnormal Abundant Causes of Tropical Cyclone in Hainan Island in 2013. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2016,36(2):262-268

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收稿日期:2014-07-31
最后修改日期:2014-10-24
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2016-06-13
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