江蘇暴雨概率預(yù)報及其業(yè)務(wù)應(yīng)用

doi:10.3969/2014jms.0072

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江蘇暴雨概率預(yù)報及其業(yè)務(wù)應(yīng)用
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                        10.3969/2014jms.0072
                    
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基金項目:國家科技支撐計劃項目(2011BAK21B00);江蘇省氣象臺自立科技研發(fā)項目(ST201401);江蘇省科技廳科技支撐計劃社會發(fā)展項目(BE2011818)

Application of the heavy rainfall probability forecast in Jiangsu

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以未來12~36h、36~60h和60~84h的暴雨預(yù)報為目標,利用2011年-2013年夏季6-8月歐洲細網(wǎng)格數(shù)值模式預(yù)報產(chǎn)品分析了江蘇夏季暴雨的可能預(yù)報因子。通過對各因子進行相關(guān)性、敏感性和代表性分析后,優(yōu)選了22個對不同強度降水具有較好區(qū)分能力的暴雨預(yù)報因子。以這些因子為基礎(chǔ)建立了一種簡單的江蘇省暴雨概率預(yù)報方法。其預(yù)報產(chǎn)品已在江蘇省氣象業(yè)務(wù)一體化平臺上投入業(yè)務(wù)使用。該方法在2011-2013年7月,針對提前12h預(yù)報的歷史回報試驗中,TS技巧評分平均為13.6,明顯高于EC細網(wǎng)格24h降水預(yù)報產(chǎn)品(平均TS評分僅為4.5)。在2014年梅汛期的6月25-26日、7月1-2日和7月4-5日三次區(qū)域性暴雨個例的預(yù)報試驗中,提前60、36、12h的預(yù)報效果均較好,其平均TS評分(44.6)也明顯高于歐洲細網(wǎng)格數(shù)值模式的降水預(yù)報(20.4)。

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Aiming at the heavy rainfall probability forecast in Jiangsu province in the coming 12-36, 36-60 and 60-84 hours, an investigation has been conducted on the possible predictors of summer rainfall in Jiangsu province by European Center of Medium range Weather forecasts (ECMWF) fine mesh numerical forecast model products in summer (June-August) for the period of 2011-2013. The optimized predictors that can well distinguish rainfall with different grades amount to 22 have been selected to analyze their relativity, sensitivity and representativeness. On the basis of the 22 factors, a simple heavy rainfall probability forecast method in Jiangsu province was proposed, and the products of this method have been put into use on the Jiangsu Weather Service Integrated Platform. Great prediction effects of this method were achieved in the reforecast of heavy rain for the future 12 hours in all the examples for July of 2011-2013 and in the three regional heavy rain examples during 2014 Meiyu season. The average Ts score for the reforecast of the heavy rainfall probability in Jiangsu province is 13.6 and obviously exceeds that of the rainfall prediction by ECMWF numerical forecast model (the average Ts score is only 4.5). Besides, in the forecast test of the three examples, the average Ts scores for the prediction of heavy rain region of 60-hour, 36-hour and 12-hour in advance based on the new probability forecast method is 44.6, which is also much higher than that of ECMWF numerical forecast model (20.4).

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陳圣劼,孫燕,劉安寧,羅兵.江蘇暴雨概率預(yù)報及其業(yè)務(wù)應(yīng)用.氣象科學(xué),2016,36(2):269-274 CHEN Shengjie, SUN Yan, LIU Anning, LUO Bing. Application of the heavy rainfall probability forecast in Jiangsu. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2016,36(2):269-274

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收稿日期:2014-07-28
最后修改日期:2014-08-21
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2016-06-13
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