熱帶氣旋影響下浙江省強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程延伸期預(yù)報(bào)研究

doi:10.3969/2014jms.0085

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熱帶氣旋影響下浙江省強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程延伸期預(yù)報(bào)研究
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                        10.3969/2014jms.0085
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（90815028）；浙江省自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（LQ14D050001）；浙江省氣象科技計(jì)劃資助項(xiàng)目（2012QN04）；浙江省氣候中心科技開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目

Preliminary study on extended-range forecast for intensive precipitation processes over Zhejiang province induced by tropical cyclone: Model construction and examination

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利用2000-2011年NCEP/NCAR水平風(fēng)場(chǎng)逐日再分析資料以及浙江省逐日降水量資料，基于低頻天氣圖工具，識(shí)別出3種與浙江省臺(tái)風(fēng)強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程相對(duì)應(yīng)的典型低頻大氣環(huán)流型。通過(guò)合成分析，劃分了與C型環(huán)流場(chǎng)和C+SN型環(huán)流場(chǎng)相適配的天氣關(guān)鍵區(qū)。進(jìn)而結(jié)合歷史個(gè)例，研究了臺(tái)風(fēng)強(qiáng)降水期間關(guān)鍵區(qū)內(nèi)低頻系統(tǒng)的活動(dòng)特征，初步建立了熱帶氣旋影響下浙江省強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程預(yù)報(bào)模型，并提出依據(jù)模型開(kāi)展延伸期過(guò)程預(yù)報(bào)的基本思路。對(duì)2012年的回報(bào)結(jié)果表明，模型表現(xiàn)出較好的性能，并針對(duì)強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程延伸期預(yù)報(bào)中需要解決的問(wèn)題，提出了若干思考與建議。

Abstract:

Based on the daily NCEP/NCAR horizontal wind reanalysis datasets during 2000-2011 and synchronous daily precipitation data over Zhejiang province, the low-frequency synoptic chart was used to indentify three kinds of typical low-frequency atmospheric circulation pattern corresponding to intensive precipitation processes over Zhejiang province induced by tropical cyclone. Through composite analysis, the synoptic key regions corresponding to the "C-type" and "C+SN-type" circulation pattern are built. Furthermore, combined with historic cases study, the characteristics of low-frequency system activities in key regions during heavy rainfall processes are investigated, and a preliminary forecast model for intensive precipitation process over Zhejiang province induced by typhoon is constructed, moreover, a fundamental method conducting extended-range forecast of such strong rainfall processes is proposed. The performance of forecast model in this paper generally satisfies the hindcast of important typhoon-induced intensive precipitation processes in 2012, but the problems in operational extended-range forecast remain open. Some thoughts and suggestions are raised finally.

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馬浩,李正泉,雷媛,肖晶晶.熱帶氣旋影響下浙江省強(qiáng)降水過(guò)程延伸期預(yù)報(bào)研究.氣象科學(xué),2016,36(3):374-381 MA Hao, LI Zhengquan, LEI Yuan, XIAO Jingjing. Preliminary study on extended-range forecast for intensive precipitation processes over Zhejiang province induced by tropical cyclone: Model construction and examination. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2016,36(3):374-381

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收稿日期:2014-06-06
最后修改日期:2014-10-03
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在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2016-07-14
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