基于臨界條件的中國航空氣象危險要素區(qū)域分布與風(fēng)險區(qū)劃

doi:10.3969/2015jms.0009

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基于臨界條件的中國航空氣象危險要素區(qū)域分布與風(fēng)險區(qū)劃
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                        10.3969/2015jms.0009
                    
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基金項目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目（41075070，41276008，41375002）

Regional distribution and risk zoning of risk factors of Chinese aeronautical meteorology under the critical condition

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根據(jù)航空飛行安全的氣象保障規(guī)范和臨界條件，探討了我國區(qū)域內(nèi)影響飛機(jī)起降的氣象要素的區(qū)域特征；在氣象要素影響分析的基礎(chǔ)上，建立飛機(jī)起降安全的氣象要素評價指標(biāo)；采用層次分析法（AHP）確定各評價指標(biāo)的權(quán)重，利用模糊綜合評價方法構(gòu)建了飛機(jī)起降氣象安全風(fēng)險的評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和評價體系，運用區(qū)間梯形隸屬度函數(shù)來計算評估單元各指標(biāo)針對各風(fēng)險等級的隸屬度，最后根據(jù)最大隸屬度原則作出風(fēng)險評估與區(qū)劃。分析表明，我國北方地區(qū)航空安全氣象環(huán)境較南方地區(qū)好，南方出現(xiàn)航空飛行不利影響的惡劣氣象條件的頻率顯著高于北方；我國航空安全氣象風(fēng)險由北至南逐漸遞增，尤以東部沿海地區(qū)、福建和江西東北部地區(qū)、貴州東部及湖南地區(qū)的風(fēng)險等級最高。

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According to the mode and critical condition of aviation meteorological safety support, the regional features of the meteorological factors affecting the taking off and landing phases of aircraft over China region were discussed. Based on the analysis on the meteorological influencing factors, aviation meteorological risk assessment index during taking off and landing phases was established. The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) was used to determine the weights of risk assessment index. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation helped construct evaluation standards and evaluation system of aviation safety. Furthermore, it is available to calculate the membership degree for each risk level about every evaluation unit based on trapezoidal membership functions. Finally, the risk assessment and regionalization based on the maximum membership principle were made. Results show that the weather conditions of taking off and landing phases in most parts of northern China were better than that in the south, and the frequency of adverse weather conditions making a practical implication in the South China was significantly higher than that in the North. Final evaluation showed the safety risks increase gradually from north to south. Eastern coastal areas, the Northeast Fujian and Jiangxi provinces,the Hunan province and the eastern region of Guizhou province were at the highest risk level.

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黃斌,朱偉軍,紅梅,葛珊珊.基于臨界條件的中國航空氣象危險要素區(qū)域分布與風(fēng)險區(qū)劃.氣象科學(xué),2016,36(4):466-473 HUANG Bin, ZHU Weijun, HONG Mei, GE Shanshan. Regional distribution and risk zoning of risk factors of Chinese aeronautical meteorology under the critical condition. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2016,36(4):466-473

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收稿日期:2015-01-12
最后修改日期:2015-02-12
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2016-09-07
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