浙江省溫度和相對(duì)濕度釋用技術(shù)及其效果檢驗(yàn)分析

doi:10.3969/2015jms.0050

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浙江省溫度和相對(duì)濕度釋用技術(shù)及其效果檢驗(yàn)分析
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                        10.3969/2015jms.0050
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41405047）；公益性行業(yè)（氣象）科研專項(xiàng)（GYHY201306010）；浙江省氣象科技計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目（2013ZD02）

Interpretation method and effect validation of temperature and relative humility forecast in Zhejiang province

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基于多模式的要素預(yù)報(bào)和浙江省鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)站點(diǎn)觀測(cè)資料，結(jié)合全省天氣統(tǒng)計(jì)特點(diǎn)，利用最優(yōu)集成方案，改進(jìn)了溫度和相對(duì)濕度的1~7 d預(yù)報(bào)。統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)，模式的溫度預(yù)報(bào)在浙江省中南部主要表現(xiàn)為系統(tǒng)性偏差，在浙江省北部平原地區(qū)主要為隨機(jī)誤差。使用滑動(dòng)平均誤差訂正后，浙中南等地形復(fù)雜地區(qū)溫度預(yù)報(bào)的系統(tǒng)性偏差明顯減小。在模式訂正基礎(chǔ)上，使用動(dòng)態(tài)集成進(jìn)一步減小了浙北平原地區(qū)溫度預(yù)報(bào)的隨機(jī)誤差?；跍貪耜P(guān)系，使用改進(jìn)后的溫度預(yù)報(bào)對(duì)相對(duì)濕度預(yù)報(bào)進(jìn)行訂正。與傳統(tǒng)的加權(quán)平均方法相比，改進(jìn)后的溫度預(yù)報(bào)均方根誤差減小16.7%，相對(duì)濕度預(yù)報(bào)均方根誤差減小13.8%，對(duì)改善浙江省精細(xì)化預(yù)報(bào)有一定參考意義。

Abstract:

Based on the multi-model forecast products and observational data in Zhejiang rural stations, combined with the statistical features of climate in the whole province, the prediction skills of 1-7 days' prediction of Surface Air Temperatures (SATs) and relative humidity at 2 m are improved by using the objective consensus forecasting system. The errors of SATs tend to be systematic bias in the central and south areas of Zhejiang, while the stochastic errors are dominated in the northern part of Zhejiang. The systematic biases significantly decreases in the prediction of the complex terrain in the central and south areas of Zhejiang after correcting by moving average error. The stochastic errors are further deduced by using multi-model ensemble after the SAT revisions. On the basis of the improved SAT, the relative humidity at 2 m are corrected by the equation of temperature-humidity relation. Compared to the traditional products, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) reduces by 16.7% with the improved SAT products, and 13.8% for the relative humidity at 2 m. The improved predictions are helpful and important for the weather forecast.

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李超,裘薇,婁小芬,王霽吟,郝世峰.浙江省溫度和相對(duì)濕度釋用技術(shù)及其效果檢驗(yàn)分析.氣象科學(xué),2016,36(4):556-561 LI Chao, QIU Wei, LOU Xiaofen, WANG Jiyin, HAO Shifeng. Interpretation method and effect validation of temperature and relative humility forecast in Zhejiang province. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2016,36(4):556-561

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收稿日期:2015-02-09
最后修改日期:2015-06-05
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2016-09-07
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