中國夏季氣溫對東亞土壤濕度異常響應(yīng)的統(tǒng)計評估

doi:10.3969/2015jms.0070

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中國夏季氣溫對東亞土壤濕度異常響應(yīng)的統(tǒng)計評估
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                        10.3969/2015jms.0070
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41230422，41405068）

Response of summer air temperature in China to soil moisture anomalies in East Asia and its statistical assessment

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基于歐亞夏季土壤濕度變化特征及其與中國夏季氣溫的相關(guān)分析，選取東亞地區(qū)作為土壤濕度異常影響中國夏季氣溫的陸面關(guān)鍵區(qū)，采用廣義平衡反饋分析方法（GEFA）探討了我國夏季氣溫對東亞地區(qū)土壤濕度異常的可能響應(yīng)，并初步討論了相關(guān)的物理過程。結(jié)果表明：中國夏季氣溫與東亞地區(qū)初夏和同期的土壤濕度異常具有密切的聯(lián)系；進(jìn)一步分析表明，夏季氣溫距平場對土壤濕度第一模態(tài)的響應(yīng)最顯著：當(dāng)東亞中緯度及我國東部地區(qū)土壤濕度異常偏干時，夏季氣溫表現(xiàn)為一致增暖；而土壤濕度第二模態(tài)對長江流域至我國西部地區(qū)的氣溫有較弱的強(qiáng)迫作用；氣溫對第三模態(tài)的響應(yīng)主要表現(xiàn)為華南地區(qū)的顯著降溫。并以對氣溫影響最為顯著的土壤濕度異常第一模態(tài)為例，初步探討了氣溫對土壤濕度異常響應(yīng)的可能物理過程。當(dāng)貝加爾湖以南以及我國東部的土壤偏干時，地表異常加熱容易引起我國北方高層大氣出現(xiàn)明顯正異常和低層的反氣旋性異常環(huán)流，上述環(huán)流異常容易導(dǎo)致溫度偏高，同時不利于該區(qū)域降水的發(fā)生，進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致土壤濕度偏低，上述正反饋機(jī)制可能是該區(qū)域土壤濕度與大氣之間聯(lián)系的一種可能途徑。

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Based on the characteristics of summer soil moisture anomaly in Eurasia and its correlation analysis with summer temperatures in China, the East Asia was selected as the land-forcing key area and the possible responses of summer temperature in China to soil moisture anomaly in East Asia were discussed by using the Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA), and then the relevant physical processes were also preliminarily analyzed. Results show that the connections of summer temperature in China and soil moisture anomaly in East Asia are quite close in both early summer and summer. Further analysis shows that the response of summer temperature in China to the first EOF mode of soil moisture anomaly is the most significant: when soil moisture in mid-latitude of East Asia and eastern China is abnormally dry, the summer temperature in China is consistently warming. The second EOF mode of soil moisture has a weak forcing to temperature from Yangtze river basin to western China. The forcing of the third mode lower the temperature in South China apparently. Taking the first EOF mode of soil moisture, the most significant impact on temperature, for example, the possible process is simply discussed as follows. When the soil is dry to the south of Baikal lake and eastern China, the abnormal heating on land surface is likely to cause significant positive anomaly in upper atmosphere and anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in low atmosphere in northern China, which may lead to a higher temperature and may inhibit the occurrence of precipitation in this area, thus decreasing the soil moisture. The positive feedback mechanism mentioned above may be a possible way linking soil moisture and the atmosphere in this region.

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宋曉君,陳海山,劉鵬.中國夏季氣溫對東亞土壤濕度異常響應(yīng)的統(tǒng)計評估.氣象科學(xué),2016,36(5):581-592 SONG Xiaojun, CHEN Haishan, LIU Peng. Response of summer air temperature in China to soil moisture anomalies in East Asia and its statistical assessment. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2016,36(5):581-592

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收稿日期:2015-05-07
最后修改日期:2015-09-07
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2016-11-01
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