基于CART算法的夏季干旱預(yù)測模型研究及應(yīng)用

doi:10.3969/2015jms.0067

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基于CART算法的夏季干旱預(yù)測模型研究及應(yīng)用
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                        10.3969/2015jms.0067
                    
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基金項目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目（41375160）；江蘇省博士后科研基金項目（1101024B）

Research on summer drought prediction model based on CART algorithm

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利用標準化降水蒸散指數(shù)（SPEI）作為判斷干旱是否發(fā)生的標準，基于數(shù)據(jù)挖掘方法中的CART算法探究夏季西太平洋副高北界、夏季西太平洋副高強度指數(shù)、準兩年振蕩（QBO）、東亞夏季風(fēng)指數(shù)、夏季北大西洋濤動（NAO）、夏季太平洋年代際振蕩（PDO）、厄爾尼諾指數(shù)等多項氣候因子與干旱的關(guān)系，構(gòu)造分類決策樹，得到干旱預(yù)報規(guī)則集，從而建立干旱的預(yù)報模型。預(yù)報模型以各項氣候因子為輸入變量，是否干旱為目標變量。根據(jù)1955-2012年商丘月平均氣溫和月總降水資料計算出商丘夏季58 a的SPEI指數(shù)作為干旱判定指標；以同期的多項氣候因子數(shù)據(jù)作為輸入變量，隨機選取46 a的數(shù)據(jù)得到7條分類規(guī)則集，分類準確率為86.96%。使用剩余12 a的數(shù)據(jù)驗證，準確率高達91.67%。結(jié)果有力地證明了基于CART算法建立干旱預(yù)報模型的可行性、科學(xué)性、有效性以及與干旱研究理論的一致性，為干旱模型的研究及季節(jié)性預(yù)測提供了科學(xué)有效的新思路。

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By using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) as the judgment standard of drought occurrence, based on the CART algorithm of data mining method, the relation between drought and multiple climate factors such as the north boundary of the summer western Pacific subtropical high, summer western Pacific subtropical high intensity index,Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the summer East Asian monsoon index and summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), summer Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño index and so on, was analyzed. Moreover, the classification decision tree was built and the prediction rules set of drought, the prediction model of drought was developed. The climatic factors included as input variables, and the result whether drought appears or not is considered as the output variable. Taking summer in Shangqiu for example, SPEI index of 58 years were calculated by the 1955-2012 monthly precipitation and monthry mean temperature data of Shangqiu as the drought index; multiple climatic factors in the same period were used as input variables. The random data of 46 years was used to get 7 classification rules, whose accuracy is 86.96%. Then, if all the data of 58 years was included, the results show the accuracy reached 91.67%. The results present that the drought prediction model established by CART algorithm provides a new idea for drought research and seasonal prediction.

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王偉,薛豐昌,史達偉,王小潔.基于CART算法的夏季干旱預(yù)測模型研究及應(yīng)用.氣象科學(xué),2016,36(5):661-666 WANG Wei, XUE Fengchang, SHI Dawei, WANG Xiaojie. Research on summer drought prediction model based on CART algorithm. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2016,36(5):661-666

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收稿日期:2015-05-07
最后修改日期:2015-08-13
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2016-11-01
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