宿遷地區(qū)水稻暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害保險(xiǎn)氣象理賠指數(shù)開(kāi)發(fā)

doi:10.3969/2016jms.0016

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宿遷地區(qū)水稻暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害保險(xiǎn)氣象理賠指數(shù)開(kāi)發(fā)
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                        10.3969/2016jms.0016
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:江蘇省氣象科研開(kāi)放基金項(xiàng)目（K201010）

Development of weather claiming index for rice rainstorm and flood disasters insurance in Suqian city

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摘要:

利用宿遷地區(qū)104個(gè)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)2003-2013年水稻產(chǎn)量資料和2008-2013年保險(xiǎn)理賠資料，計(jì)算水稻遭受暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害的災(zāi)害損失率；在自定義暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害指數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上，分析水稻災(zāi)損率與暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害指數(shù)的相關(guān)關(guān)系，建立各水稻種植區(qū)的氣象理賠指數(shù)面板隨機(jī)效應(yīng)模型。結(jié)果得出：宿遷地區(qū)水稻遭受暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害影響的平均災(zāi)損率為-1.83%，達(dá)到理賠標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)比率為37.5%；受暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害影響最重的是Ⅲ區(qū)，其次是I區(qū)，VⅡ區(qū)和Ⅱ區(qū)位居第三，其他幾個(gè)區(qū)相對(duì)較輕；暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害主要影響水稻的孕穗揚(yáng)花期和灌漿成熟期，對(duì)孕穗揚(yáng)花期以前的生育期影響較??；暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害指數(shù)對(duì)水稻遭受暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害影響有較好的指示意義，利用這一指數(shù)制作水稻在災(zāi)損率預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率較高，達(dá)到90%以上；利用氣象理賠指數(shù)，能較好的預(yù)報(bào)和模擬宿遷地區(qū)水稻遭受暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害的災(zāi)損率分布，對(duì)降低理賠風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，減少理賠費(fèi)用有較強(qiáng)的指導(dǎo)意義。

Abstract:

By using the rice yield data of 104 towns in Suqian area from 2003 to 2013 and insurance claiming data from 2008 to 2013, the rice loss rate caused by rainstorm and flood disasters was calculated. Based on the suggested rainstorm and flood index, the panel function was used to analyze the relationship between rice damage rates and rainstorm and flood index and to build the panel random effects model of weather claiming index in every rice-planting region. Results show that the average rice damage rate in Suqian caused by rainstorm and flood disasters is -1.83%, and there are 37.5% urban and rural areas which are up to the claiming standard; the most serious damage region is region Ⅲ, followed by region Ⅰ, region Ⅱ and region Ⅳ, and then the damage of the other regions are relatively light; the rainstorm and flood disaster have the main effects on booting flowering and grain filling periods, however, it has less effect on the growth period before booting flowering; the rainstorm and flood index is important to understand the effect of rainstorm and flood on the rice growth, in addition, the forecast accuracy of rice damage rate is relatively high, up to over 90% by using the index mentioned above. Overall, the distribution of rice damage rate caused by rainstorm and flood disaster can be forecasted and simulated better by weather claiming index, which also has better guiding significance on reducing the claiming risk and costs.

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董家山,沈偉,張瑩,趙燕華,吳新勝.宿遷地區(qū)水稻暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害保險(xiǎn)氣象理賠指數(shù)開(kāi)發(fā).氣象科學(xué),2017,37(3):416-424 DONG Jiashan, SHEN Wei, ZHANG Ying, ZHAO Yanhua, WU Xinsheng. Development of weather claiming index for rice rainstorm and flood disasters insurance in Suqian city. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2017,37(3):416-424

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收稿日期:2015-08-31
最后修改日期:2016-03-16
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-08-08
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