兩種基于雷達(dá)的臨近預(yù)報(bào)算法在贛江流域的應(yīng)用

doi:10.3969/2016jms.0040

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兩種基于雷達(dá)的臨近預(yù)報(bào)算法在贛江流域的應(yīng)用
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                        10.3969/2016jms.0040
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室開放基金（2013LASW-A09）；國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（91437214）

Application of two radar-based nowcasting methods over Ganjiang River basin

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將多尺度雷達(dá)回波跟蹤（MTREC： Muti-scale Tracking radar echoes by correlation）算法和基于降水柵格數(shù)據(jù)的網(wǎng)格追蹤臨近預(yù)報(bào)外推（PBN： Pixel-Based Nowcasting）算法應(yīng)用在贛江流域，對(duì)這兩種臨近預(yù)報(bào)算法在1~3 h預(yù)見期的臨近預(yù)報(bào)降水?dāng)?shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行評(píng)估，總結(jié)兩種臨近預(yù)報(bào)算法在贛江流域的預(yù)報(bào)性能和預(yù)報(bào)特點(diǎn)。結(jié)果表明：（1）隨著預(yù)見期的增加，MTREC方法的預(yù)報(bào)性能變化較為平緩。PBN方法的預(yù)報(bào)性能明顯變差。（2） MTREC方法預(yù)報(bào)降水偏弱，且對(duì)于低值降水預(yù)報(bào)較為準(zhǔn)確，而PBN方法預(yù)報(bào)降水偏強(qiáng)，且預(yù)報(bào)高值降水較為準(zhǔn)確。（3）MTREC方法預(yù)報(bào)的降水高值區(qū)的范圍偏小而低值降水區(qū)范圍偏大，PBN方法預(yù)報(bào)的高值降水區(qū)的范圍偏大而低值降水區(qū)范圍偏小。（4）隨著預(yù)見期的增加，MTREC方法的降水概率預(yù)報(bào)變化較為平穩(wěn)，而PBN方法預(yù)報(bào)高值降水（>0.4 mm·h^-1）的概率偏高，預(yù)報(bào)低值降水（<0.4 mm·h^-1）的概率偏低。

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The Muti-scale Tracking Radar Echoes by Cross-correlation scheme (MTREC) and Pixel-Based Nowcasting algorithm (PBN) are selected and applied over Ganjiang River basin in this study. The nowcasting precipitation for 1-3 h leading time by the two methods were evaluated to summarize the nowcasting abilities and characteristics of the two nowcasting methods. Results indicate that:(1) with the leading time increasing, the variation of the forecasting abilities of the MTREC method is gentle, while the PBN method is getting worse. (2)The precipitation magnitude forecasted by the MTREC method is smaller than RQPE, and the low precipitation forecasted by the MTREC method is closer to RQPE; the PBN method is on the contrary. (3) The precipitation area forecasted by the MTREC method is smaller than RQPE, and the low precipitation area forecasted by the MTREC method is closer to RQPE; the PBN is on the contrary. (4) As the leading time increasing, the changing for Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of precipitation forecasted by the MTREC method is stable and matches well with the PDF of RQPE, while the PDF of the precipitation (>0.4 mm/h) forecasted by the PBN method is larger than that of RQPE and the PDF of the precipitation (<0.4 mm/h) forecasted by the PBN method is smaller than that of RQPE.

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李娜,勾亞彬,唐國強(qiáng),趙平,洪陽.兩種基于雷達(dá)的臨近預(yù)報(bào)算法在贛江流域的應(yīng)用.氣象科學(xué),2017,37(4):466-477 LI Na, GOU Yabin, TANG Guoqiang, ZHAO Ping, HONG Yang. Application of two radar-based nowcasting methods over Ganjiang River basin. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2017,37(4):466-477

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收稿日期:2016-04-12
最后修改日期:2016-05-22
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-09-20
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