EnSRF雷達(dá)資料同化對(duì)一次強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣模擬的影響研究

doi:10.3969/2016jms.0067

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EnSRF雷達(dá)資料同化對(duì)一次強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣模擬的影響研究
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                        10.3969/2016jms.0067
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)基礎(chǔ)研究發(fā)展計(jì)劃（973計(jì)劃）項(xiàng)目（2013CB43013）；江蘇省普通高校研究生科研創(chuàng)新計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目（KYLX_0844）；江蘇省普通高校研究生科研創(chuàng)新計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目（KYLX_0829）

Impact of EnSRF radar data assimilation on the simulation of a severe convection

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利用ARPS（Advanced Regional Prediction System）模式和具有流依賴背景誤差協(xié)方差的集合均方根濾波（Ensemble Square Root Filter，簡(jiǎn)稱EnSRF）方法，通過(guò)同化多部多普勒雷達(dá)資料，對(duì)2013年6月23日的強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣過(guò)程進(jìn)行了研究。首先對(duì)比同化試驗(yàn)和觀測(cè)的組合反射率因子，檢驗(yàn)了同化效果。通過(guò)計(jì)算均方根誤差和離散度，進(jìn)一步定量評(píng)估了同化結(jié)果。再對(duì)比模式變量，綜合分析了EnSRF雷達(dá)資料同化對(duì)模式熱力、動(dòng)力、濕度和微物理量等變量的影響。最后對(duì)集合平均場(chǎng)進(jìn)行1 km的高分辨率數(shù)值模擬。結(jié)果表明：EnSRF能夠同化出與觀測(cè)類似的對(duì)流系統(tǒng)，且減弱了南北部的虛假回波。徑向風(fēng)和反射率因子的均方根誤差明顯減少。EnSRF雷達(dá)同化能夠明顯優(yōu)化模式的初始場(chǎng)，同化試驗(yàn)的回波在垂直方向上范圍增加，強(qiáng)度偏弱。在強(qiáng)對(duì)流區(qū)域，低層的冷池溫度最多降低6 K，相對(duì)濕度最多增加30%。對(duì)流區(qū)域的雨水、冰晶和雪的混合比均有明顯增加。模擬發(fā)現(xiàn)同化試驗(yàn)?zāi)軌蜉^好地模擬出對(duì)流系統(tǒng)的結(jié)構(gòu)和位置。

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By using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) and Ensemble Square Root Filter (EnSRF) method with flow dependent background error covariance, through assimilating multiple Doppler radar data, the strong convective weather occurred on June 23, 2013 was analyzed. Firstly, the composite radar reflectivity in assimilation tests and observation were compared to verify assimilation effects, moreover, by calculating the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and spread, the assimilation results were further evaluated quantitatively. Secondly, the impacts of EnSRF radar assimilation on thermal, dynamical, humidity and microphysical variables were investigated. Finally, the ensemble mean was simulated at a high resolution of 1 km. Results show that EnSRF can assimilate convective system similar to the observations and suppress the false echo. The RMSE of radial velocity and reflectivity reduce significantly. The assimilation experiment has larger range of radar reflectivity in vertical direction and has weaker intensity than that of the control experiment. In the convective region, the strength of surface perturbation potential temperature can decrease by 6 K and the relative humidity can increase by 30%. The rain, ice and snow mixing ratios increase significantly in the convective area. The simulation with the final analysis results can better simulate the severe storm.

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黃丹蓮,高士博,閔錦忠. EnSRF雷達(dá)資料同化對(duì)一次強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣模擬的影響研究.氣象科學(xué),2017,37(5):567-578 HUANG Danlian, GAO Shibo, MIN Jinzhong. Impact of EnSRF radar data assimilation on the simulation of a severe convection. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2017,37(5):567-578

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收稿日期:2016-08-29
最后修改日期:2016-10-08
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-01-15
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