基于濕位渦和積雪效率的降雪預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)探討

doi:10.3969/2016jms.0055

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基于濕位渦和積雪效率的降雪預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)探討
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                        10.3969/2016jms.0055
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41305051）；江蘇省氣象局科研基金項(xiàng)目（KM201505）；江蘇省氣象局預(yù)報(bào)員專項(xiàng)項(xiàng)目（JSYBY201409）

Investigation on snowfall forecasting skills based on moist potential vorticity and efficiency of snow accumulation

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本文對(duì)南京地區(qū)2015年的一次強(qiáng)降雪過(guò)程進(jìn)行了濕位渦診斷分析，根據(jù)2008—2015年的57次強(qiáng)降雪個(gè)例歸納出了積雪效率與地面2 m氣溫的關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明：濕位渦正壓項(xiàng)對(duì)降雪強(qiáng)度變化有較好的指示意義；結(jié)合濕位渦斜壓項(xiàng)和地面氣溫可以較好地判斷降雪落區(qū)，且強(qiáng)降雪落區(qū)和濕位渦斜壓項(xiàng)的大值中心對(duì)應(yīng)較好；積雪效率和地面2 m氣溫是分段函數(shù)關(guān)系，利用該統(tǒng)計(jì)關(guān)系及氣溫、降雪量的預(yù)報(bào)，可以作出積雪深度的預(yù)報(bào)。

Abstract:

The Moist Potential Vorticity (MPV) of a severe snowstorm process during 2015 in Nanjing was diagnostically analyzed the firstly, and then, 57 heavy snow cases during 2008 to 2015 were studied to conclude the relationship between snow accumulation efficiency and 2-meter temperature. Results showed that the barotropic item oMPV has good agreement with snowfall intensity. The snowfall area was well forecasted by combining the baroclinic item of MPV and the surface temperature, and the heavy snowfall area was well corresponding with the large value center of the baroclinic item of MPV. The snow accumulation efficiency was closely determined by surface 2-meter temperature. Their relationship, temperature and snowfall amount could be used to forecast the snowfall depth.

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姜有山,束宇,李力,劉冬晴.基于濕位渦和積雪效率的降雪預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)探討.氣象科學(xué),2017,37(5):659-665 JIANG Youshan, SHU Yu, LI Li, LIU Dongqing. Investigation on snowfall forecasting skills based on moist potential vorticity and efficiency of snow accumulation. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2017,37(5):659-665

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收稿日期:2015-12-23
最后修改日期:2016-03-13
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-01-15
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抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说