檢驗全球數(shù)值預(yù)報模式的相似度等指標(biāo)

doi:10.3969/2017jms.0007

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2018年第38卷第2期 >221-228. DOI:10.3969/2017jms.0007

檢驗全球數(shù)值預(yù)報模式的相似度等指標(biāo)
DOI:
                        10.3969/2017jms.0007
                    
CSTR:
                        
                    
作者:
                        
                        
                    
作者單位:
作者簡介:
通訊作者:
中圖分類號:
基金項目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目（41375063）

Similarity and distance for verification of global numerical models

Author:

Affiliation:

Fund Project:

摘要

圖/表

訪問統(tǒng)計

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

資源附件

文章評論

摘要:

本文依照泛函形式并考慮了球面經(jīng)緯網(wǎng)格的特點，定義了用于全球數(shù)值模式效果檢驗的指標(biāo)：距離、距平相似度和傾向相似度，給出了相應(yīng)的計算方法，并以全球WRF模式為例，檢驗了該模式的中期預(yù)報效果。所得結(jié)論如下：指標(biāo)距離、距平相似度和傾向相似度物理意義明確，易于理論分析，考慮了球面經(jīng)緯網(wǎng)格的特點，檢驗準(zhǔn)確度高，具有普適性，能方便應(yīng)用于球面經(jīng)緯網(wǎng)格輸出的數(shù)值模式檢驗。指標(biāo)距離、距平相似度的檢驗結(jié)果分別與傳統(tǒng)檢驗指標(biāo)均方根誤差、距平相關(guān)系數(shù)相一致，該指標(biāo)還可直接用于向量場（如風(fēng)場）的整體檢驗。本文的全球WRF模式所做的檢驗表明，對本文個例，該模式的全球500 hPa中期天氣形勢預(yù)報在第7 d及之內(nèi)皆可用，5 d及之內(nèi)預(yù)報效果更佳。

Abstract:

The new statistics for verification of global numerical models, distance, anomaly similarity and tendency similarity are introduced in functional way in this paper and takes the global characteristics into consideration. The effect of the three indexes for global numerical models is verified and the corresponding calculation method is given in the paper. The forecast results of global WRF model are taken as an example to evaluate its ability to predict weather system of medium-range. Results show as follows:the new statistics have explicit physical meanings, convenient for theoretical analysis and taking the characteristic of numerical model with spherical meridian grid into consideration. Thus, they have high accuracy and are universal. They can be easily used for verification of numerical models with output in spherical latitude and longitude grid. The calculation results of new statistics are compared with typical statistics (anomaly correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error, which are suggested by World Meteorological Organization). The calculations of new statistics are consistent with that of typical ones. The new statistics can also be used for the verification of vectors, like wind field. The calculation results of new statistics of global WRF show that the prediction of global geopotential height is usable in seven days and better in five days for the example in this article.

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

引用本文

朱娟,張立鳳,張銘.檢驗全球數(shù)值預(yù)報模式的相似度等指標(biāo).氣象科學(xué),2018,38(2):221-228 ZHU Juan, ZHANG Lifeng, ZHANG Ming. Similarity and distance for verification of global numerical models. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2018,38(2):221-228

復(fù)制

文章指標(biāo)

點擊次數(shù):
下載次數(shù):
HTML閱讀次數(shù):
引用次數(shù):

歷史

收稿日期:2016-10-23
最后修改日期:2017-02-14
錄用日期:
在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-06-22
出版日期:

文章二維碼

您是第位訪問者
氣象科學(xué) ® 2026 版權(quán)所有
技術(shù)支持：北京勤云科技發(fā)展有限公司

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒 激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说