淮河上游地區(qū)夏玉米生長降水關鍵期內旱澇致災降水閾值研究

doi:10.3969/2017jms.0071

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淮河上游地區(qū)夏玉米生長降水關鍵期內旱澇致災降水閾值研究
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                        10.3969/2017jms.0071
                    
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基金項目:國家自然科學基金資助項目（41571018）

Study on precipitation thresholds of drought and flood disasters in the key period of precipitation for summer maize in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River

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基于淮河上游地區(qū)11個氣象站點1959—2015年降水資料，利用夏玉米氣候產量與生育期降水序列進行相關性分析，確定降水影響夏玉米生長的關鍵時段，定義為夏玉米生長降水關鍵期，并采用21種分布函數(shù)對降水關鍵期內降水序列進行擬合，選取K-S和A-D方法進行擬合優(yōu)度檢驗，建立最優(yōu)概率分布模型，再基于降水概率分位數(shù)法定量化設計夏玉米各級旱澇的降水閾值R，并驗證指標的合理性。結果表明：（1）淮河上游地區(qū)夏玉米抽雄-成熟生育時段及前一旬降水量對夏玉米產量影響顯著；（2）各站點夏玉米生長降水關鍵期內降水序列的最優(yōu)概率分布模型差異明顯；（3）11個站點夏玉米各級旱澇災害的降水閾值地區(qū)差異較大，利用泰森多邊形法確定整個淮河上游地區(qū)夏玉米生長降水關鍵期內旱澇致災降水閾值分別是：重旱R < 73 mm，旱73 mm ≤ R < 138 mm，正常138 mm ≤ R < 337 mm，澇337 mm ≤ R < 475 mm，重澇R ≥ 475 mm。

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Based on the climatic records of 11 meteorological stations in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River from 1959 to 2015, the correlation analysis was conducted using the climatic yield of summer maize and the precipitation sequence in the growth period to determine the key period that precipitation have the greatest influence on summer maize and define it as the key period of precipitation for summer maize. In addition, 21 distribution functions were applied to fit the precipitation series in the key period of precipitation and meanwhile the test of goodness of fit was conducted by K-S and A-D method to create the optimal probability distribution model. Further, the precipitation thresholds R of all levels of drought and flood in summer maize were designed based on the probability of quantitation of precipitation probability, and the rationality of the index was verified. The results show that (1) precipitation in the tassel-mature stage and the first ten days of the tassel-mature stage has significant effect on the yield of summer maize in the upper reaches of Huaihe River; (2) The optimal probability distribution models of precipitation sequences in the critical growth period of summer maize and precipitation were significantly different at each station; (3) The precipitation thresholds of all levels of drought and flood disasters for summer maize in 11 stations were varied in different regions. The Tyson polygon method was used to determine the precipitation thresholds of drought and flood disasters in the key period of precipitation for summer maize in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River, namely severe drought R < 73 mm, drought 73 mm ≤ R < 138 mm, normal condition 138 mm ≤ R < 337 mm, flood 337 mm ≤ R < 475 mm, severe flood R ≥ 475 mm.

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李學文,高超,尹周祥,阮甜.淮河上游地區(qū)夏玉米生長降水關鍵期內旱澇致災降水閾值研究.氣象科學,2018,38(4):477-488 LI Xuewen, GAO Chao, YIN Zhouxiang, RUAN Tian. Study on precipitation thresholds of drought and flood disasters in the key period of precipitation for summer maize in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2018,38(4):477-488

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收稿日期:2016-12-26
最后修改日期:2017-07-27
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-09-14
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