基于BCC_CSM模式的破紀(jì)錄高溫事件研究

doi:10.3969/2017jms.0054

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基于BCC_CSM模式的破紀(jì)錄高溫事件研究
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                        10.3969/2017jms.0054
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃（2016YFA0600504）；國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41775073）

Study on the record-breaking event of high temperature based on BCC_CSM model

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利用國(guó)家氣候中心發(fā)展的海氣耦合模式BCC_CSM 1.1模擬的北半球逐日最高氣溫?cái)?shù)據(jù)探討了近年來破紀(jì)錄高溫事件頻數(shù)變化特征，并預(yù)估了其在未來不同情景排放下的可能變化?；趩吸c(diǎn)逐日最高氣溫模擬資料呈正態(tài)分布及破紀(jì)錄高溫事件符合隨機(jī)理論，對(duì)北半球近50 a破紀(jì)錄高溫事件頻數(shù)進(jìn)行了模擬與理論的對(duì)比分析。結(jié)果表明：破紀(jì)錄高溫事件頻數(shù)模擬理論比呈現(xiàn)顯著的上升趨勢(shì)，且這種上升趨勢(shì)海洋大于陸地，低緯大于高緯；通過與氣溫相關(guān)分析得知破紀(jì)錄高溫事件頻數(shù)模擬理論比的上升趨勢(shì)主要是由北半球氣溫上升導(dǎo)致。在此基礎(chǔ)上，比較了RCP4.5與RCP8.5兩種不同排放情景下破紀(jì)錄高溫事件頻數(shù)模擬理論比的變化特征，結(jié)果表明在后期（2060—2098）二者差異顯著，前者變化較為平穩(wěn)，而后者具有顯著上升趨勢(shì)，這種差異是對(duì)氣溫不同變化的響應(yīng)，且低緯海洋的響應(yīng)比陸地更為敏感。

Abstract:

Under the background of global warming, the Record-Breaking Event (RBE) of high temperature occurs more frequently and attracts the worldwide attention. This paper analyzed the variation of the RBE of high temperature in recent years and estimated the possible variation under different warming scenarios in the future based on a coupled model (BCC_CSM1.1) developed by national climate center. The daily maximum temperature simulation data on a single point showed a normal distribution, and the RBE of high temperature is in line with the stochastic theory. On this basis, we compare the simulation and theory of RBE of high temperature in the northern hemisphere in recent 50 years. The results show that the ratio between simulation and theoretical value takes a significant rising trend and varies in different regions, namely, the ratio is higher in ocean than in land, and higher in low-latitudes than in mid-latitudes. Through the correlation analysis of temperature, it is learned that the rise of temperature in the northern hemisphere plays the primary role in the rising trend of the ratio of RBE of high temperature. Moreover, the variation characteristics of RBE frequency of high temperature under two warming scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were compared. The large difference is found in the later half period (2060—2098), with the ratio significantly rising under RCP8.5 while stable under RCP4.5. Such difference is the response to the changes of temperature, and this response of the low-latitude ocean is more sensitive than that in land.

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張羽充,況雪源.基于BCC_CSM模式的破紀(jì)錄高溫事件研究.氣象科學(xué),2018,38(4):531-538 ZHANG Yuchong, KUANG Xueyuan. Study on the record-breaking event of high temperature based on BCC_CSM model. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2018,38(4):531-538

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收稿日期:2017-04-07
最后修改日期:2017-05-16
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-09-14
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