基于CART算法的夏季高溫預(yù)測模型構(gòu)建與應(yīng)用

doi:10.3969/2017jms.0070

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基于CART算法的夏季高溫預(yù)測模型構(gòu)建與應(yīng)用
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                        10.3969/2017jms.0070
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:教育部長江學(xué)者和創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)發(fā)展計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目（PCSIRT）；江蘇高校優(yōu)勢學(xué)科建設(shè)工程項(xiàng)目（PAPD）

Building and application of summer high temperature prediction model based on CART algorithm

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以夏季高溫有效積溫的多年平均值作為判斷夏季高溫炎熱程度的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，借助CART算法探究東亞夏季風(fēng)指數(shù)，夏季印緬槽，夏季北大西洋濤動（NAO），赤道太平洋海溫等多項(xiàng)氣候因子與高溫的關(guān)系，得到高溫預(yù)測規(guī)則集，建立高溫的預(yù)測模型。研究中選取1955—2012年福建漳州夏季的日最高氣溫等站點(diǎn)氣溫資料，通過計(jì)算58 a的夏季高溫有效積溫?cái)?shù)值來判定夏季的炎熱程度。將同一時期的多項(xiàng)氣候因子數(shù)據(jù)作為輸入變量輸入，算法會隨機(jī)選出其中46 a的數(shù)據(jù)得到10條分類規(guī)則集，建立的預(yù)測模型準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)到91.49%。用剩下的12 a數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)，準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)到91.67%。研究結(jié)果較好地驗(yàn)證了高溫預(yù)測模型的可行性和有效性，為災(zāi)害性天氣模型的研究提供了新思路。

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The average value of effective accumulated high temperature in summer for many years was considered as a standard to judge the extent of a hot summer. The CART algorithm was employed to explore the relationship between the high temperature and the climatic factors such as East Asian summer monsoon index, summer India-Myanmar trough, summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and equatorial Pacific sea temperature, and the high-temperature prediction rule set was obtained to build a high-temperature prediction model. The study selected the daily maximum temperature data in summer among 1955—2012 in Zhangzhou of Fujian Province. The extent of a hot summer was determined through the effective accumulated temperature of high temperature in summer for 58 years. A number of climatic factors in the same period were input as the input variables, and 46a data were randomly selected to get 10 classification rule sets. The accuracy of the built predication model reached 91.49%. The remaining 12a data were used for test, with an accuracy up to 91.67%. Generally speaking, the results of this paper have verified the feasibility and validity of the high temperature prediction model, which provides a new idea for the research of the catastrophic weather model.

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官雨潔,王偉,劉壽東.基于CART算法的夏季高溫預(yù)測模型構(gòu)建與應(yīng)用.氣象科學(xué),2018,38(4):539-544 GUAN Yujie, WANG Wei, LIU Shoudong. Building and application of summer high temperature prediction model based on CART algorithm. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2018,38(4):539-544

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收稿日期:2017-06-24
最后修改日期:2017-09-05
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-09-14
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