長(zhǎng)江流域月降水的時(shí)空變化及其與AO/NAO的時(shí)滯相關(guān)分析

doi:10.3969/2018jms.0012

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長(zhǎng)江流域月降水的時(shí)空變化及其與AO/NAO的時(shí)滯相關(guān)分析
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                        10.3969/2018jms.0012
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41472238）；湖南省十二五重點(diǎn)學(xué)科地理學(xué)

Analysis on spatiotemporal variability of monthly precipitation and its lag correlation with AO and NAO in Yangtze River Basin

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運(yùn)用旋轉(zhuǎn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)正交函數(shù)（REOF）和交叉小波變換方法，分析了長(zhǎng)江流域1960-2012年月降水的時(shí)空分布特征及其與AO/NAO的時(shí)滯相關(guān)關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明：（1）長(zhǎng)江流域月降水異常分布的局域特征明顯，可劃分為4個(gè)主要的空間異常型：兩湖平原型、東南丘陵型、西南型及北方型；（2）4個(gè)主要的空間異常模態(tài)的累計(jì)貢獻(xiàn)率達(dá)45.8%，其中REOF₁（18.9%）的正異常區(qū)位于巫山及兩湖平原地區(qū)；東南丘陵一帶為REOF₂（12.3%）的正值中心，REOF₃（8.9%）突出了云貴高原北部和四川盆地南部的正異常區(qū)；REOF₄（5.7%）的負(fù)值中心處于四川盆地北部及其以北地區(qū)。這4個(gè)模態(tài)的時(shí)間系數(shù)（RPC_k）的變化幅度較大，且其位相均呈不規(guī)則的正負(fù)交替，表明各降水異常區(qū)具有復(fù)雜的時(shí)間演變特征；（3）4個(gè)主要異常模態(tài)與AO、NAO在特定時(shí)間尺度皆存在顯著相關(guān)的現(xiàn)象，巫山及兩湖平原地區(qū)、四川盆地北部及其以北地區(qū)的月降水均對(duì)AO表現(xiàn)出及時(shí)響應(yīng)；東南丘陵一帶的月降水對(duì)AO、NAO的最佳滯后響應(yīng)時(shí)間都較長(zhǎng)。

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The spatiotemporal variability of monthly precipitation and its lag correlation with AO and NAO from 1960 to 2012 in Yangtze River Basin are analyzed by applying the rotated empirical orthogonal function(REOF) and cross wavelet transform. The results are as follows:(1) The local characteristics of the anomalous distribution of monthly precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin are obvious. It can be divided into four main spatial anomalies:the plain of Hubei and Hunan type, southeast hill type and southwest type and north type; (2) The cumulative contribution rate of the four major spatial anomalies is 45.8%. REOF₁ (18.9%) reveals that the positive anomaly area of this mode is located in Wushan and the plain of Hubei and Hunan, the southeast hilly area is the positive value center of the second mode REOF₂ (12.3%), REOF₃ (8.9%) highlights the northern Yunnan Guizhou Plateau and the southern Sichuan Basin as the positive anomaly area of this mode, and the negative center of the fourth mode REOF₄ (5.7%) is located in the northern part of Sichuan Basin and areas to its north. The variation ranges of the four modes' time coefficients are large, and their phases all show irregular positive-negative alternations, indicating complicated temporal evolution characteristics in different precipitation anomaly zones. (3) Each mode shows significant correlation with both AO and NAO at certain time scales. Monthly precipitation in Wushan, the plain of Hubei and Hunan, the northern part of Sichuan Basin and regions to its north all show timely responses towards AO, while the optimum response time of monthly precipitation in the southeast hilly area towards AO and NAO are both longer.

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王蕊,陳阿嬌,賀新光.長(zhǎng)江流域月降水的時(shí)空變化及其與AO/NAO的時(shí)滯相關(guān)分析.氣象科學(xué),2018,38(6):730-738 WANG Rui, CHEN Ajiao, HE Xinguang. Analysis on spatiotemporal variability of monthly precipitation and its lag correlation with AO and NAO in Yangtze River Basin. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2018,38(6):730-738

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收稿日期:2017-09-21
最后修改日期:2017-12-25
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-01-30
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