極端天氣指數(shù)在強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣中的應(yīng)用及檢驗(yàn)

doi:10.3969/2017jms.0088

首頁(yè) > 過(guò)刊瀏覽>2018年第38卷第6期 >768-779. DOI:10.3969/2017jms.0088

極端天氣指數(shù)在強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣中的應(yīng)用及檢驗(yàn)
DOI:
                        10.3969/2017jms.0088
                    
CSTR:
                        
                    
作者:
                        
                        
                    
作者單位:
作者簡(jiǎn)介:
通訊作者:
中圖分類號(hào):
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41375051）；氣象預(yù)報(bào)業(yè)務(wù)關(guān)鍵技術(shù)發(fā)展專項(xiàng)（YBGJXM（2017）02）

Application and verification of extreme forecast index in severe convection weather

Author:

Affiliation:

Fund Project:

摘要

圖/表

訪問(wèn)統(tǒng)計(jì)

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

資源附件

文章評(píng)論

摘要:

數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)特別是集合預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)大大提高了對(duì)極端天氣的預(yù)報(bào)能力，目前對(duì)于溫度、風(fēng)、降水等要素，歐洲中心基于集合預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品計(jì)算的極端指數(shù)產(chǎn)品為其極端性提供了定量化依據(jù)。但目前尚沒(méi)有應(yīng)用于業(yè)務(wù)預(yù)報(bào)的強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣極端指數(shù)產(chǎn)品，本文統(tǒng)計(jì)了與強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣密切相關(guān)的物理量，并計(jì)算了其極端天氣指數(shù)，統(tǒng)計(jì)了極端天氣指數(shù)在不同強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣中的閾值分布。結(jié)果表明，極端天氣指數(shù)與強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣有密切的關(guān)系，且不同類型的強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣極端指數(shù)的分布和閾值具有各自的特點(diǎn)?；谏鲜鼋Y(jié)果，利用極端指數(shù)和模式降水資料，使用支持向量機(jī)方法，建立了不同類型強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣的客觀預(yù)報(bào)方法，為業(yè)務(wù)預(yù)報(bào)極端強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣提供客觀支持產(chǎn)品。

Abstract:

Numerical forecasts, especially ensemble forecast techniques, greatly improve the ability to predict extreme weather. At present, for the temperature, wind, precipitation and other factors, the European Center's extreme index products based on ensemble forecast products provide a quantitative basis for their extremity. However, there is currently no strong convective weather extreme index product for operational forecast. Therefore, this paper counts the physical quantities closely related to the strong convective weather, calculates its extreme weather index, and counts the threshold distribution of the extreme weather index in different severe convective weather. The results show that the extreme weather index is closely related to the strong convective weather, and the distribution and threshold of different types of strong convective weather extreme indices have their own characteristics. Based on the above results, using the extreme exponential and model precipitation data, using the support vector machine method, this paper establishes an objective forecasting method for different types of severe convective weather, and provides objective support products for operational forecast of extremely strong convective weather.

參考文獻(xiàn)

相似文獻(xiàn)

引證文獻(xiàn)

引用本文

張小雯,鄭永光,盛杰,曹艷察.極端天氣指數(shù)在強(qiáng)對(duì)流天氣中的應(yīng)用及檢驗(yàn).氣象科學(xué),2018,38(6):768-779 ZHANG Xiaowen, ZHENG Yongguang, SHENG Jie, CAO Yancha. Application and verification of extreme forecast index in severe convection weather. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2018,38(6):768-779

復(fù)制

文章指標(biāo)

點(diǎn)擊次數(shù):
下載次數(shù):
HTML閱讀次數(shù):
引用次數(shù):

歷史

收稿日期:2017-09-05
最后修改日期:2017-12-07
錄用日期:
在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-01-30
出版日期:

文章二維碼

您是第位訪問(wèn)者
氣象科學(xué) ® 2026 版權(quán)所有
技術(shù)支持：北京勤云科技發(fā)展有限公司

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒 激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说