神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法在環(huán)渤海能見度預(yù)報中的應(yīng)用分析

doi:10.3969/2018jms.0041

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2018年第38卷第6期 >798-805. DOI:10.3969/2018jms.0041

神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法在環(huán)渤海能見度預(yù)報中的應(yīng)用分析
DOI:
                        10.3969/2018jms.0041
                    
CSTR:
                        
                    
作者:
                        
                        
                    
作者單位:
作者簡介:
通訊作者:
中圖分類號:
基金項目:國家重點研發(fā)計劃課題（2016YFC0203301）；國家基金委重點研究項目（91644223）

Application analysis of neural network method in visibility forecast of coastal cities around Bohai Sea

Author:

Affiliation:

Fund Project:

摘要

圖/表

訪問統(tǒng)計

參考文獻

相似文獻

引證文獻

資源附件

文章評論

摘要:

本文基于2001-2015年中國氣象局地面常規(guī)氣象觀測數(shù)據(jù)及NECP再分析資料，采用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法構(gòu)建環(huán)渤海沿海城市能見度預(yù)報模型，利用2016年ECMWF集合預(yù)報數(shù)據(jù)基于預(yù)報模型進行能見度預(yù)報實驗，并與ECMWF集合預(yù)報產(chǎn)品中現(xiàn)有能見度預(yù)報結(jié)果進行對比分析。分析表明：該方法對于環(huán)渤海沿海城市能見度預(yù)報的預(yù)報效果明顯高于ECMWF集合預(yù)報中的能見度預(yù)報，12~72 h預(yù)報時效中，最小值對應(yīng)1 km以下能見度的TS評分為0.36~0.43；10 km以下能見度預(yù)報誤差顯著降低，與離散度的對應(yīng)關(guān)系較好。因此，該方法對低能見度天氣過程的能見度預(yù)報具有指示意義。

Abstract:

Based on the conventional ground-based observation data of China Meteorological Administration during the period of 2001 to 2015 and NECP reanalysis data, and by using the BP neural network method, this paper constructs the forecast model of visibility in the coastal cities around Bohai Sea, to conduct a visibility forecast experiment based on the forecast model and by using the 2016 ECMWF ensemble forecast data, and compare the result to the current visibility forecast result from products of ECMWF ensemble forecast. The analysis shows distinct improvement of this method in the accuracy of visibility forecast in the coastal cities around Bohai sea compared to visibility forecast of ECMWF ensemble forecast. In 12-72 hours of forecast periods, the minimum value corresponds to the TS rated score when visibility is below 1km, which is 0.36-0.43; it also shows a significant reduction of deviation in visibility forecast when visibility is below 10 km, with good dispersion relation as well. Also, it can provide an important reference for visibility forecast of low visibility weather.

參考文獻

相似文獻

引證文獻

引用本文

胡海川,張恒德,朱彬,謝超.神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法在環(huán)渤海能見度預(yù)報中的應(yīng)用分析.氣象科學(xué),2018,38(6):798-805 HU Haichuan, ZHANG Hengde, ZHU Bin, XIE Chao. Application analysis of neural network method in visibility forecast of coastal cities around Bohai Sea. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2018,38(6):798-805

復(fù)制

文章指標(biāo)

點擊次數(shù):
下載次數(shù):
HTML閱讀次數(shù):
引用次數(shù):

歷史

收稿日期:2017-11-22
最后修改日期:2018-05-08
錄用日期:
在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-01-30
出版日期:

文章二維碼

您是第位訪問者
氣象科學(xué) ® 2026 版權(quán)所有
技術(shù)支持：北京勤云科技發(fā)展有限公司

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒 激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说