暴雨災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)影響的評(píng)估

doi:10.3969/2018jms.0001

首頁(yè) > 過(guò)刊瀏覽>2019年第39卷第1期 >137-142. DOI:10.3969/2018jms.0001

暴雨災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)影響的評(píng)估
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                        10.3969/2018jms.0001
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害精細(xì)化預(yù)報(bào)及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究（2014210003）

Assessment on storm disaster risk and its impact on agriculture

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綜合考慮降雨區(qū)域類型、發(fā)生強(qiáng)度和持續(xù)時(shí)間，確定了暴雨災(zāi)害致災(zāi)因子的綜合強(qiáng)度分級(jí)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)；將地形高程、高程標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差、河網(wǎng)密度等環(huán)境脆弱性要素結(jié)合暴雨災(zāi)害致災(zāi)因子，建立暴雨災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型，并進(jìn)行分級(jí)評(píng)估；應(yīng)用GIS將農(nóng)業(yè)易損性指標(biāo)疊加到暴雨災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)劃中，得到不同等級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)下農(nóng)業(yè)受影響的程度。以"7·21"暴雨為例，進(jìn)行模型的應(yīng)用及檢驗(yàn)分析，結(jié)果表明：降雨量最大的葫蘆島大部、丹東寬甸縣暴雨災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)為極高；致災(zāi)因子危險(xiǎn)等級(jí)相同時(shí)，遼寧中部平原地區(qū)較遼西、遼東丘陵地區(qū)暴雨災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)高；農(nóng)業(yè)易損性較高的沈陽(yáng)大部、鞍山北部、丹東局部、錦州大部、鐵嶺部分、葫蘆島大部地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)受災(zāi)較重。評(píng)估結(jié)果與事實(shí)災(zāi)情較一致。

Abstract:

According to the rainfall coverage area, intensity and duration, this paper determines the comprehensive strength grading standard for storm hazard factors. This paper integrates environmental vulnerability factors such as terrain elevation, elevation standard deviation, and river network density with storm disaster hazard factors, to establish a rainstorm disaster risk assessment model, and conduct a graded assessment. GIS is applied to superimpose the agricultural vulnerability factor into the storm disaster risk zoning, to capitulate the extent to which agriculture is affected under different risk levels. Taking the "7·21" heavy rain as an example, the application and test analysis of the model are carried out. The result shows that the storm disaster risk grade is extremely high in most areas of Huludao and Kuandian county in Dandong which have the maximum rainfall. Under the same grades of hazard factor, the risk level is higher in the plain region located in the central part of Liaoning province than in the hill region located in the west and east Liaoning. Agriculture in most areas of Shenyang, northern Anshan, local areas of Dandong, most areas of Jinzhou, some areas of Tieling, and most areas of Huludao is seriously affected. All of the above areas have high agricultural vulnerability. The assessment results are consistent with the actual situation.

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王瑩,張曉月,張琪,李琳琳,黃巖.暴雨災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)影響的評(píng)估.氣象科學(xué),2019,39(1):137-142 WANG Ying, ZHANG Xiaoyue, ZHANG Qi, LI Linlin, HUANG Yan. Assessment on storm disaster risk and its impact on agriculture. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2019,39(1):137-142

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收稿日期:2017-01-17
最后修改日期:2018-01-19
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-03-18
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