南海夏季風(fēng)對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)“啟德”極端降水影響的數(shù)值模擬

doi:10.3969/2018jms.0029

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南海夏季風(fēng)對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)“啟德”極端降水影響的數(shù)值模擬
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                        10.3969/2018jms.0029
                    
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中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):P444
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41375056；41575070；41075070）；公益性行業(yè)（氣象）科研專(zhuān)項(xiàng)（GYHY201306028）；江蘇高校優(yōu)勢(shì)學(xué)科建設(shè)工程（PAPD）

Numerical simulation on the influence of South China Sea summer monsoon on the extreme precipitation caused by typhoon “Kai-tak”

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本文為研究臺(tái)風(fēng)"啟德"極端降水的成因，模擬了南海夏季風(fēng)減弱后臺(tái)風(fēng)"啟德"的路徑、強(qiáng)度、雨帶位置、降水強(qiáng)度等。結(jié)果表明，夏季風(fēng)削弱后，南海地區(qū)的西南季風(fēng)受到抑制，臺(tái)風(fēng)強(qiáng)度減弱，臺(tái)風(fēng)范圍內(nèi)降水強(qiáng)度總體減弱，臺(tái)風(fēng)雨帶偏南，因此南海夏季風(fēng)強(qiáng)度減弱不利于極端降水的產(chǎn)生。降水模擬過(guò)程中發(fā)現(xiàn)，降水強(qiáng)度的減弱在整個(gè)模擬試驗(yàn)時(shí)間周期內(nèi)，表現(xiàn)為非峰值強(qiáng)度減弱明顯，而峰值強(qiáng)度不明顯減弱。進(jìn)一步分析了臺(tái)風(fēng)降水的逐小時(shí)演變特征和臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑特征。結(jié)果表明，控制試驗(yàn)與敏感性試驗(yàn)?zāi)M臺(tái)風(fēng)登陸在時(shí)間上存在時(shí)間差，與臺(tái)風(fēng)降水的逐小時(shí)變化峰值出現(xiàn)的時(shí)間差基本對(duì)應(yīng)。這說(shuō)明可能臺(tái)風(fēng)登陸過(guò)程的其他復(fù)雜因素導(dǎo)致夏季風(fēng)減弱后臺(tái)風(fēng)登陸降水不表現(xiàn)出明顯減弱。而非登陸過(guò)程，減弱夏季風(fēng)對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)降水有減幅作用。

Abstract:

Typhoon "Kai-Tak" (2012) had caused extreme precipitation along coastal areas in Guangdong and Guangxi when the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon reached its strongest stage. In order to figure out the causes of extreme precipitation associated with typhoon "Kai-Tak", we simulated the track, intensity, rain belt position, and precipitation intensity of typhoon "Kai-Tak" after the summer monsoon intensity reduced. Results showed that southwest monsoon had been weakened in the South China Sea; typhoon intensity was weakened; typhoon precipitation was reduced among the typhoon range as a whole; and typhoon rain band moved southward. Thus, the weakened South China Sea summer monsoon was not in favor of producing extreme precipitation. During the precipitation intensity simulation, we found that after monsoon intensity was reduced, the typhoon precipitation intensity was not weakened obviously around its peak point but obviously weakened in other period. In order to determine the reasons, the hourly evolution characteristics of the typhoon precipitation and the typhoon track simulation were analyzed. It is found that control simulation experiment has the difference in the landing time of typhoon with the sensitivity simulation experiment, which basically corresponds to the time difference between the hourly variation peak of typhoon precipitation. This indicates that other complicated factors in the process of typhoon landing led to a non-obvious decrease in precipitation caused by typhoon landing after the weakening of the monsoon, while beyond the process of typhoon landing, the weakened summer monsoon has a significant decreasing effect on typhoon precipitation.

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夏侯杰,朱偉軍,任福民,梁佳,王彬雁.南海夏季風(fēng)對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)“啟德”極端降水影響的數(shù)值模擬.氣象科學(xué),2019,39(3):295-303 XIA Houjie, ZHU Weijun, REN Fumin, LIANG Jia, WANG Binyan. Numerical simulation on the influence of South China Sea summer monsoon on the extreme precipitation caused by typhoon “Kai-tak”. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2019,39(3):295-303

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收稿日期:2017-11-28
最后修改日期:2018-03-12
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-07-01
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