全球升溫1.5℃與2.0℃目標下長江流域極端降水的變化特征

doi:10.3969/2018jms.0071

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全球升溫1.5℃與2.0℃目標下長江流域極端降水的變化特征
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                        10.3969/2018jms.0071
                    
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中圖分類號:P467
基金項目:國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目（2017YFA0603701）；中國清潔發(fā)展機制基金項目（2013024）

Variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin under the global warming 1.5℃ and 2.0℃

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基于區(qū)域氣候模式COSMO-CLM及5個全球氣候模式（GFDL-ESM2M，HadGEM2-ES，IPSL-CM5A-LR，MIROC-ESM-CHEM，NorESM1-M）1961-2100年逐日降水?dāng)?shù)據(jù)，采用重現(xiàn)期法計算20 a與50 a一遇極端降水量，研究全球升溫1.5℃和2.0℃目標下長江流域極端降水的變化特征。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：全球升溫1.5℃目標下，長江流域20 a與50 a一遇極端降水量分別為78和93 mm，相比1986-2005年將增加10%和9%；空間上表現(xiàn)為中下游普遍增加，最大增幅145%，上游地區(qū)則主要表現(xiàn)為減少趨勢；全球升溫2.0℃目標下，20 a與50 a一遇極端降水量分別為81和98 mm，將較基準期上升14%和15%；中下游極端降水量顯著上升，最大增幅約188%，上游成都平原以西以北明顯下降；隨全球升溫由1.5℃至2.0℃時，20 a與50 a一遇極端降水量分別增加4%和6%，中下游較上游增幅更明顯，最大增幅136%。因此，將溫室氣體減排目標控制在1.5℃水平對減緩長江流域尤其是中下游地區(qū)極端降水事件影響具有重要的意義。

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Based on the daily precipitation grid datasets from one highly-resolution regional climate model (COSMO-CLM) and five Global Climate Models (GFDL-ESM2M,HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) for the period 1961 to 2100 over the Yangtze River basin, the extreme precipitation for different return periods (20 and 50 years) are calculated separately by the return period method, and the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River basin under the target of the global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ are analyzed in detail. The research results show that:in the 1.5℃ warming period, the 20-year and 50-year extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin are 78 mm and 93 mm, which will increase respectively by 10% and 9%, relative to the reference period (1986-2005). Under the global warming of 1.5℃, the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation for different return periods (20 and 50 years) shows an increasing trend in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and the maximum rise is 145%, but the extreme precipitation will decrease over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin. In the 2.0℃ warming period, the 20-year and 50-year extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin are 81 mm and 98 mm respectively, which will increase respectively by 14% and 15%, relative to the reference period. There is an obvious increasing trend of extreme precipitation in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and the maximum rise is 188%, but significant decrease is detected on the western and northern part of Chengdu Plain over the upper Yangtze River basin. Compared with the global warming of 1.5℃, the 20-year and 50-year extreme precipitation will increase respectively by 4% and 6% over the Yangtze River basin, especially in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River under the 2.0℃ warming target, where the biggest increase is 136%.Therefore, controlling greenhouse gas emission reduction targets at 1.5℃ level is of great significance to reduce the adverse effects of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin, especially in the mid-lower reaches.

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王艷君,劉俸霞,翟建青,王豫燕,姜彤.全球升溫1.5℃與2.0℃目標下長江流域極端降水的變化特征.氣象科學(xué),2019,39(4):540-547 WANG Yanjun, LIU Fengxia, ZHAI Jianqing, WANG Yuyan, JIANG Tong. Variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin under the global warming 1.5℃ and 2.0℃. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2019,39(4):540-547

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收稿日期:2018-03-07
最后修改日期:2018-07-19
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-08-31
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