基于自組織映射的長(zhǎng)江中下游夏季天氣分型及其降水特征

doi:10.3969/2018jms.0055

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基于自組織映射的長(zhǎng)江中下游夏季天氣分型及其降水特征
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                        10.3969/2018jms.0055
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目（2017YFA0603804）；國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目（41230528）

Synoptic classification and precipitation characteristics in summer over the Yangtze River Basin based on self-organizing map

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利用歐洲中心1979-2015年夏季6-8月ERA-Interim逐日再分析資料和國(guó)家氣候中心CN05.1格點(diǎn)化降水觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)集，引入基于自組織映射SOM（Self-Organizing Maps）方法進(jìn)行長(zhǎng)江中下游地區(qū)夏季海平面氣壓空間距平場(chǎng)的客觀分型，得到該地區(qū)25種地面天氣型及其系統(tǒng)演變特征，發(fā)現(xiàn)天氣型的穩(wěn)定、轉(zhuǎn)移與天氣系統(tǒng)強(qiáng)弱有關(guān)。高低壓系統(tǒng)越強(qiáng)，天氣型停滯頻率越高，天氣型越穩(wěn)定；反之，天氣型越不穩(wěn)定?；赟OM天氣型轉(zhuǎn)移概率，發(fā)現(xiàn)三條與局地降水聯(lián)系的系統(tǒng)演變路徑，其中1號(hào)路徑暖空氣勢(shì)力強(qiáng)盛，副高北上，推動(dòng)鋒面北抬，產(chǎn)生江北降水型，多發(fā)生在7月；路徑2反映冷空氣勢(shì)力強(qiáng)盛推動(dòng)鋒面南下的天氣過(guò)程，產(chǎn)生沿江降水型，該天氣型在6、7月均易發(fā)生；路徑3表現(xiàn)為臺(tái)風(fēng)移動(dòng)變化對(duì)長(zhǎng)江下游江南地區(qū)降水的影響，為江南降水型，且集中在8月。通過(guò)引入SOM方法對(duì)逐日天氣尺度環(huán)流進(jìn)行分型，從氣候態(tài)上捕捉與降水有關(guān)的天氣系統(tǒng)的移動(dòng)變化特征，體現(xiàn)SOM方法在模擬天氣系統(tǒng)演變的優(yōu)勢(shì)。

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Based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center and CN05.1 gridded Precipitation observation data from the National Climate Center during the summer from June to August during 1979-2015, the Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method is introduced to classify objectively sea level pressure fields over the Yangtze River Bain, and 25 surface synoptic patterns and their characteristics of evolution in the area is obtained. It's found that the stability and shift of synoptic patterns are related to the strength of the weather systems. The stronger high and low pressure system, the higher stagnation frequency of synoptic patterns, and the more stable synoptic patterns. On the contrary, the synoptic pattern is more unstable. Three systematic evolution paths associated with local precipitation are found on the basis of the SOM synoptic patterns transition probability. Among them, warm air force on the first path is strong and push the front northward with subtropical pacific high pressure northward, which brings Northern Yangtze River Rainfall Pattern (NYRP) mostly occurring in July. The second path reflects that the cold air forces spurs the southward of the front, resulting in Yangtze River Rainfall Pattern (YRP), which is likely to occur in June and July. Path three represents the influence of the typhoon movement to the precipitation in the Jiangnan region of lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which forms Southern Yangtze River Rainfall Pattern (SYRP) concentrated in August. In this study, the SOM method is used to classify the daily atmospheric circulation and capture the movement characteristics of the weather system related to the precipitation from the climate state, which reflects the advantages of the SOM method in simulating the evolution of the weather system.

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吳勝男,江志紅.基于自組織映射的長(zhǎng)江中下游夏季天氣分型及其降水特征.氣象科學(xué),2019,39(5):588-598 WU Shengnan, JIANG Zhihong. Synoptic classification and precipitation characteristics in summer over the Yangtze River Basin based on self-organizing map. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2019,39(5):588-598

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收稿日期:2018-04-16
最后修改日期:2018-05-03
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-11-11
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