熱帶海溫影響我國(guó)南方冬季降水年際變化的年代際差異及其成因

doi:10.3969/2019jms.0026

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熱帶海溫影響我國(guó)南方冬季降水年際變化的年代際差異及其成因
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                        10.3969/2019jms.0026
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)基礎(chǔ)研究發(fā)展計(jì)劃（973）項(xiàng)目（2015CB453201）；中國(guó)電力建設(shè)股份有限公司項(xiàng)目（DJ-ZDZX-2016-02）

Interdecadal difference of sea temperature influencing interannual variation of winter precipitation in South China

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利用中國(guó)740個(gè)站逐月降水資料、NOAA月平均海表溫度資料和NCEP/NCAR再分析資料，采用統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)方法分析了近50 a（1961/1962至2010/2011年冬季）海溫異常對(duì)我國(guó)南方冬季降水年際變化影響的年代際差異及其成因。結(jié)果表明：（1）中國(guó)冬季降水大致位于長(zhǎng)江以南的我國(guó)南方地區(qū)，降水年際變化較強(qiáng)。1987年后，在El Niño年中國(guó)南方冬季降水偏多。（2）中國(guó)南方冬季降水與赤道中東太平洋海溫異常以及海洋性大陸西部海溫異常密切相關(guān)。但相關(guān)性存在年代際差異：1987年之前，主要與海洋性大陸西部海溫異常相關(guān)；1987年之后，主要與赤道中東太平洋海溫異常密切相關(guān)，海洋性大陸西部海溫異常次之。（3）1987年之前，海洋性大陸西部海溫通過(guò)影響東亞環(huán)流形勢(shì)和水汽條件影響我國(guó)南方降水；在1988年之后，海洋性大陸的影響趨于減弱，而赤道中東太平洋海溫異常通過(guò)改變水汽條件影響我國(guó)南方冬季降水強(qiáng)度。

Abstract:

Based on the monthly precipitation data from 740 stations in China, NOAA monthly mean sea surface temperature data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the interdecadal differences and their causes of the effects of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on the annual variation of winter precipitation in South China over the past 50 years (1961/1962 to 2010/2011 winter) were analyzed by statistical methods in this paper. The results show that:(1) The winter precipitation in China is mainly located in the south of the Yangtze River, with strong interannual variation. After 1987, winter precipitation in the El Niño year was higher in South China. (2) Winter precipitation in South China is closely related to SSTA in the equatorial Middle East Pacific Ocean and in the western part of the Oceanic Continents. However, there are interdecadal differences in correlation. Before 1987, it was mainly related to the SSTA in the western part of the Oceanic Continents while it was mainly related to the SSTA in the equatorial Middle East Pacific Ocean after 1987, followed by the SSTA in the western part of the Oceanic Continents. (3) Before 1987, the sea surface temperature in the western part of Oceanic Continents affected the precipitation in South China by affecting the circulation situation in East Asia and water vapor conditions. After 1988, the influence of oceanic continents tended to be weaken, while the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Middle East Pacific affected the winter precipitation intensity in southern China by changing water vapor conditions.

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張福穎,黃乾,董麗娜.熱帶海溫影響我國(guó)南方冬季降水年際變化的年代際差異及其成因.氣象科學(xué),2019,39(5):635-643 ZHANG Fuying, HUANG Qian, DONG Lina. Interdecadal difference of sea temperature influencing interannual variation of winter precipitation in South China. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2019,39(5):635-643

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收稿日期:2019-04-02
最后修改日期:2019-04-29
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-11-11
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