基于集合預報的臺風“利奇馬”登陸后遠距離暴雨預報的敏感性分析

doi:10.3969/2019jms.0080

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基于集合預報的臺風“利奇馬”登陸后遠距離暴雨預報的敏感性分析
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                        10.3969/2019jms.0080
                    
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中圖分類號:P457.6
基金項目:國家重點研發(fā)計劃（2017YFC1502004）；國家科技支撐項目（2015BAC03B01）；國家氣象中心預報員專項（Y201926）

Sensitivity analysis of the long-distance rainstorm forecast after the landfall of typhoon “Lekima” based on ensemble forecast

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2019年第9號臺風"利奇馬"在8月10日登陸后引發(fā)了遠距離大范圍的暴雨，本文利用ECMWF（EC）和GRAPES全球集合預報模式等資料對暴雨短期預報的誤差及原因進行了分析。此次臺風遠距離暴雨主要集中在8月10日夜間的山東中部地區(qū)，EC集合預報對該區(qū)域的降水量預報效果總體優(yōu)于GRAPES集合預報。集合敏感性分析可以識別出和預報變量高相關(guān)（敏感）的天氣系統(tǒng)，結(jié)果表明山東區(qū)域平均降水量對同期500 hPa副高、臺風西北側(cè)海平面氣壓和山東北部低層溫度較為敏感，而對流層高層的高度及經(jīng)向風存在更大范圍的敏感區(qū)。根據(jù)暴雨預報TS評分選取EC集合預報成員作為優(yōu)勢組和劣勢組，結(jié)果表明優(yōu)勢組預報成員表現(xiàn)為山東上空300 hPa低槽前傾，北側(cè)高空偏南急流更強，同時配合低層臺風外圍偏東風急流，形成高層輻散、低層輻合的有利條件。另外，優(yōu)勢組預報的中緯度低層冷空氣和斜壓鋒區(qū)更強，導致優(yōu)勢組在山東中部預報出暴雨，更加接近于實況。

Abstract:

Typhoon "Lekima", which landed in 2019, triggered a long-distance and large-scale heavy rainfall. The short-term forecast errors of heavy rainfall and its causes are analyzed based on ECMWF global ensemble forecasts and GRAPES global ensemble forecasts data. The far-distance typhoon heavy rainfall mostly occurred in the central region of Shandong Province on the night of 10 August. EC ensemble forecast shows better performance over GRAPES ensemble forecasts regarding heavy rainfall in this region. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) can identify high correlated (sensitive) weather systems with forecast variables. Results show that area-averaged precipitation over Shandong is more sensitive to that in the subtropical high at 500 hPa level, Mean Sea Level Pressure(MSLP) in the northwest of typhoon as well as low-level temperature in the north of Shandong, while there is wider range of sensitive regions for height and meridional wind field at upper troposphere. Two groups are selected according to Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall of EC ensemble members as the accurate group and the failed group. Further analysis indicates that the members of the accurate group present that 300 hPa trough over Shandong province tilts forward and upper-level southerly jet stream on the north side is stronger. Accompanied by easterly jet stream at low level in out periphery of typhoon, it forms the upper-level convergence and low-level divergence conditions. Additionally, the accurate group shows stronger mid-latitude cold air and baroclinic frontal zone at lower level, leading to the forecast of heavy rainfall in central region of Shandong which is much closer to observation.

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王毅,張曉美,陶亦為,劉爽,鄧國.基于集合預報的臺風“利奇馬”登陸后遠距離暴雨預報的敏感性分析.氣象科學,2020,40(1):22-29 WANY Yi, ZHANG Xiaomei, TAO Yiwei, LIU Shuang, DENG Guo. Sensitivity analysis of the long-distance rainstorm forecast after the landfall of typhoon “Lekima” based on ensemble forecast. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2020,40(1):22-29

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收稿日期:2019-09-26
最后修改日期:2019-10-30
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-03-16
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