基于春季氣候信號(hào)的“臺(tái)風(fēng)是否經(jīng)過(guò)江蘇”預(yù)測(cè)研究

doi:10.3969/2019jms.0060

首頁(yè) > 過(guò)刊瀏覽>2020年第40卷第1期 >130-135. DOI:10.3969/2019jms.0060

基于春季氣候信號(hào)的“臺(tái)風(fēng)是否經(jīng)過(guò)江蘇”預(yù)測(cè)研究
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                        10.3969/2019jms.0060
                    
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中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):P456.9
基金項(xiàng)目:淮河流域氣象開(kāi)放研究基金項(xiàng)目（HRM201602）；江蘇省氣象局青年基金項(xiàng)目（KQ201802）

Study on forecast model of tropical cyclones passing through Jiangsu Province based on spring climate signals

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摘要:

利用中國(guó)氣象局提供的1951-2018年臺(tái)風(fēng)最佳路徑數(shù)據(jù)集，篩選經(jīng)過(guò)江蘇的熱帶氣旋個(gè)例，發(fā)現(xiàn)歷史上所有經(jīng)過(guò)江蘇的熱帶氣旋都發(fā)生在夏秋季節(jié)?；诖杭?30種氣候信號(hào)指數(shù)，利用C4.5決策樹(shù)算法建立"臺(tái)風(fēng)是否經(jīng)過(guò)江蘇"的預(yù)測(cè)模型。結(jié)果表明：基于C4.5算法的決策樹(shù)能夠較為直觀且準(zhǔn)確地對(duì)每年"臺(tái)風(fēng)是否經(jīng)過(guò)江蘇"進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。利用1951-2000年（51 a）的數(shù)據(jù)樣本進(jìn)行訓(xùn)練，學(xué)習(xí)準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)到82%，利用2001-2018年（18 a）的數(shù)據(jù)樣本對(duì)模型進(jìn)行泛化能力測(cè)試，測(cè)試準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)到83.3%，最后利用2019年第9號(hào)熱帶氣旋"利奇馬"經(jīng)過(guò)江蘇的事實(shí)進(jìn)行個(gè)例檢驗(yàn)，符合決策樹(shù)規(guī)則C?？梢宰C明C4.5算法對(duì)"臺(tái)風(fēng)是否經(jīng)過(guò)江蘇"的預(yù)測(cè)具有較高的準(zhǔn)確率和通用性。

Abstract:

Based on the data set of the best track of typhoon from 1951 to 2018 provided by China Meteorological Administration, the data of tropical cyclones passing through Jiangsu Province are screened. It is found that all the tropical cyclones passing through Jiangsu in history occur in summer and autumn. Based on 130 climatic signal indices in spring, a forecast model of whether tropical cyclones pass through Jiangsu Province is established by using C4.5 decision tree algorithm. The results show that the decision tree based on C4.5 algorithm can be more intuitive and accurate to predict whether a tropical cyclone passes through Jiangsu in a year. The learning accuracy rate reaches 82% by using the data samples from 1951 to 2000 (50 years) for training. The testing accuracy rate reaches 83.3% by using the data samples from 2001 to 2018 (18 years) for testing the generalization ability of the model. Finally, an example is tested based on the fact that there is the known tropical cyclone "Lekima" passing through Jiangsu in 2019. It conforms to the decision tree rule C. It can be proved that the C4.5 algorithm has the high accuracy and robustness in predicting whether there is a tropical cyclone passing through Jiangsu.

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史達(dá)偉,李超,周灝,朱云鳳.基于春季氣候信號(hào)的“臺(tái)風(fēng)是否經(jīng)過(guò)江蘇”預(yù)測(cè)研究.氣象科學(xué),2020,40(1):130-135 SHI Dawei, LI Chao, ZHOU Hao, ZHU Yunfeng. Study on forecast model of tropical cyclones passing through Jiangsu Province based on spring climate signals. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2020,40(1):130-135

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收稿日期:2019-09-20
最后修改日期:2019-10-09
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-03-16
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