冬季北半球風(fēng)暴軸的協(xié)同變化及其與大氣環(huán)流的相互作用

doi:10.3969/2018jms.0091

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冬季北半球風(fēng)暴軸的協(xié)同變化及其與大氣環(huán)流的相互作用
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                        10.3969/2018jms.0091
                    
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基金項目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目（41575070；41075070）；公益性行業(yè)（氣象）科研專項（GYHY201306028）；江蘇高校優(yōu)勢學(xué)科建設(shè)工程（PAPD）

Coordinated variation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in winter and their interaction with atmospheric circulation

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基于1971—2016年NCEP/NCAR的逐日、逐月再分析資料，研究冬季北半球西伯利亞風(fēng)暴軸（Siberian Storm Track，SIST）、北太平洋風(fēng)暴軸（Pacific Storm Track，PST）和北大西洋風(fēng)暴軸（Atlantic Storm Track，AST）的協(xié)同變化特征及其與大氣環(huán)流的關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明：（1）三大風(fēng)暴軸不僅各自的位置與強(qiáng)度變化存在顯著相關(guān)性，風(fēng)暴軸之間也存在一定的協(xié)同變化且年代際尺度上比年際尺度上更緊密。年際尺度上，SIST與AST的經(jīng)度變化呈顯著負(fù)相關(guān)，而PST和AST的協(xié)同性較差；年代際尺度上，SIST與PST的經(jīng)、緯度變化均呈弱的負(fù)相關(guān)，SIST與AST的經(jīng)度和強(qiáng)度變化均呈顯著正相關(guān)，PST與AST的經(jīng)、緯度變化均呈顯著負(fù)相關(guān)。（2）由聯(lián)合EOF分析得到北半球風(fēng)暴軸的協(xié)同變化時空特征：在年際尺度上，第一模態(tài)主要表現(xiàn)為SIST偏弱（強(qiáng)），PST主體偏弱（強(qiáng)）、東南偏強(qiáng)（弱），AST略偏北（南）偏強(qiáng)（弱）但不顯著的協(xié)同變化。PC1為正位相時，對應(yīng)的大氣環(huán)流異常為：500 hPa高度場上為太平洋北美（Pacific North America，PNA）型和歐亞（Eurasian，EU）型的正位相，東亞急流偏強(qiáng)且偏南；第二模態(tài)主要表現(xiàn)為SIST偏強(qiáng)（弱）且偏東（西），PST中東部偏南（北）、西部強(qiáng)度偏強(qiáng)（弱），AST偏強(qiáng)（弱）的協(xié)同變化。PC2為正位相時，對應(yīng)的大氣環(huán)流異常為：500 hPa高度場上為PNA型和大西洋東部（East Atlantic，EA）型的正位相，北美急流減弱；在年代際尺度上，第一模態(tài)主要表現(xiàn)為SIST偏西（東）且偏弱（強(qiáng)），PST偏東（西）且偏弱（強(qiáng)），AST偏西（東）且偏弱（強(qiáng)）的協(xié)同變化。PC1為正位相時，對應(yīng)的大氣環(huán)流異常為：500 hPa高度場上為西大西洋（West Atlantic，WA）型和EU型的正位相。第二模態(tài)主要表現(xiàn)為SIST偏強(qiáng)（弱）且偏北（南），PST偏南（北）且偏弱（強(qiáng)），AST北抬（南壓）的協(xié)同變化。PC2為正位相時，對應(yīng)的大氣環(huán)流異常為：500 hPa高度場上為EU型和WA型的正位相，東亞急流強(qiáng)度加強(qiáng)且偏南，北美急流強(qiáng)度減弱。

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Based on the daily and monthly reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR from 1971 to 2016, the coordinated variation characteristics of the Siberian Storm Track (SIST), North Pacific Storm Track (PST) and North Atlantic Storm Track (AST) and their relationship with atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere were investigated by using harmonic analysis, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), regression analysis, etc. The results show that: (1) The three storm tracks not only have significant correlations between their respective positions and intensity changes, but have some coordinated variations between the storm tracks, and they are closer on the interdecadal scale than the interannual scale. On the interannual scale, there is a significant negative correlation between SIST and AST in their longitude changes, and the synergy between PST and AST is poor. On the interdecadal scale, SIST and PST are weakly negatively correlated in their latitude and longitude changes. SIST and AST are significantly positively correlated in their longitude and intensity changes. PST and AST are significantly negatively correlated in their latitude and longitude changes. (2) The temporal and spatial characteristics of the coordinated variations of the storm tracks at the Northern Hemisphere obtained by the EOF analysis include: on the interannual scale, the coordinated variation of the first order mode is mainly characterized that SIST is weak (strong); PST is weak (strong) at climatological position and strong (weak) in the southeast; AST is strong (weak) and northward (southward) but not significant. When PC1 is in the positive phase, corresponding atmospheric circulation anomalies include PNA and EU teleconnections are positive at the level of 500 hPa, and East Asia jet stream is strong and southward. The coordinated variation of the second order mode is mainly characterized that SIST is strong (weak) and eastward (westward); PST is southward (northward) in the middle east and strong (weak) in the west, and AST is strong (weak). When PC2 is in the positive phase, corresponding atmospheric circulation anomalies include that PNA and EA teleconnections are positive at the level of 500 hPa, and the North American jet stream weakens. On the interdecadal scale, the coordinated variation of the first order mode is mainly characterized that SIST is westward (eastward) and weak (strong); PST is eastward (westward) and weak (strong); AST is westward (eastward) and weak (strong). When PC1 is in the positive phase, corresponding atmospheric circulation anomalies include that WA and EU teleconnections at the level of 500 hPa are positive. The coordinated variation of the second order mode is mainly characterized that SIST is strong (weak) and northward (southward); PST is southward (northward) and weak (strong); AST is northward (southward). When PC2 is in the positive phase, corresponding atmospheric circulation anomalies include that EU and WA teleconnections at the level of 500 hPa are positive, and the East Asia jet stream strengthens and moves southward, and North American jet stream weakens.

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祁春娟,朱偉軍,李欣,曹煜晨.冬季北半球風(fēng)暴軸的協(xié)同變化及其與大氣環(huán)流的相互作用.氣象科學(xué),2020,40(2):157-168 QI Chunjuan, ZHU Weijun, LI Xin, CAO Yuchen. Coordinated variation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in winter and their interaction with atmospheric circulation. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2020,40(2):157-168

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收稿日期:2018-09-11
最后修改日期:2018-11-20
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-05-26
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