西南地區(qū)雨季降水的時(shí)空分布及預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)

doi:10.3969/2018jms.0080

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西南地區(qū)雨季降水的時(shí)空分布及預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)
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                        10.3969/2018jms.0080
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P426.6
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（91337215；41575066）；國(guó)家科技支撐計(jì)劃（2015BAC03B05）；國(guó)家電網(wǎng)公司科技項(xiàng)目（SGLNDKJJS1700200）

Temporal and spatial distribution and prediction experiment of precipitation in Southwest China during the rainy season

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利用西南三省一市1980—2017年逐日降水資料，采用主成分及旋轉(zhuǎn)主成分分析，對(duì)西南雨季降水的空間異常特征進(jìn)行了研究，并在分區(qū)的基礎(chǔ)上，探討了各區(qū)降水的時(shí)間演變特征，最后運(yùn)用均生函數(shù)建立預(yù)測(cè)模型，進(jìn)行預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明：西南地區(qū)雨季降水空間差異大，具體可分為6區(qū)；各區(qū)雨季降水量的時(shí)間演變均具有顯著年際、年代際變化特征，且近年來(lái)西南大部分地區(qū)雨季降水量減少、降水異常偏少年出現(xiàn)的頻次增多；預(yù)報(bào)模型對(duì)于雨季降水的擬合和預(yù)測(cè)效果均較好。

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data in four provinces or cities in Southwest China from 1980 to 2017, the spatial anomaly characteristics of precipitation in Southwest China during the rainy season were analyzed using the methods of principal component analysis and rotated principal component analysis. By the regional division, the characteristics of temporal evolution of precipitation in different regions were discussed. Finally, the prediction model was established using the mean generating function, and the prediction experiment was carried out. The results show that the precipitation in Southwest China during the rainy season has a large spatial difference and can be divided into six regions. There are significant inter-annual and inter-decadal characteristics in each region.The precipitation in most regions in southwest is reduced in recent years, and the year with abnormally less precipitation appears more frequently, and the prediction model will achieve good results for both the fitting and prediction of precipitation in the rainy season.

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王瑞英,肖天貴.西南地區(qū)雨季降水的時(shí)空分布及預(yù)報(bào)試驗(yàn).氣象科學(xué),2020,40(3):354-362 WANG Ruiying, XIAO Tiangui. Temporal and spatial distribution and prediction experiment of precipitation in Southwest China during the rainy season. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2020,40(3):354-362

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收稿日期:2018-04-27
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