重慶多歷時(shí)極值降水的概率型優(yōu)選及應(yīng)用

doi:10.3969/2019jms.0003

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重慶多歷時(shí)極值降水的概率型優(yōu)選及應(yīng)用
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                        10.3969/2019jms.0003
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P426.62
基金項(xiàng)目:公益性行業(yè)（氣象）科研專項(xiàng)（GYHY201506014）；2018年重慶市氣象局智慧氣候應(yīng)用創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)項(xiàng)目

Probability distribution model optimization and application of multiple duration extreme precipitation in Chongqing

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基于重慶34個(gè)國(guó)家氣象站1981—2016年5 min，24 h至3 d的過(guò)程最大雨量共18個(gè)年極值降水序列，利用線性矩法計(jì)算6種常用概率分布函數(shù)的模型參數(shù)，通過(guò)備選最優(yōu)模型篩選法客觀選取各站各歷時(shí)極值降水的最優(yōu)概率模型，并將優(yōu)選結(jié)果應(yīng)用于重慶不同歷時(shí)百年重現(xiàn)期降水的計(jì)算。結(jié)果表明：模型優(yōu)選方法得到的重慶各站不同歷時(shí)極值降水的最優(yōu)線型略有差異，廣義極值分布占比最大，三參數(shù)Weibull分布次之，三參數(shù)對(duì)數(shù)正態(tài)分布第三，皮爾遜Ⅲ型和Gumbel分布相當(dāng)，指數(shù)分布最差。最優(yōu)線型計(jì)算的重慶不同歷時(shí)百年重現(xiàn)期降水的空間分布大值區(qū)由短歷時(shí)的點(diǎn)狀分布向長(zhǎng)歷時(shí)的片狀分布轉(zhuǎn)變，渝東北的大值中心受地形影響不斷向北移動(dòng)?；诰€性矩法的概率模型參數(shù)估計(jì)及客觀的線型優(yōu)選過(guò)程具有較強(qiáng)的可操作性和適應(yīng)性，可應(yīng)用于其他工程氣象參數(shù)的推算中。

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Based on 18 durations of annual maximum rainfall series of 34 national stations in Chongqing from 1981 to 2016, the L-moments are used to estimate the parameters of six common probability distributions. The optimal line, ensured objectively by alternative optimal model method, is applied to calculate the 100-year return period extreme precipitation with different durations. The result is as follows: There exist different optimal distributions for different duration of extreme rainfall in each station. The ratio of the largest to the smallest proportion is the Generalized of Extreme Value distribution (GEV), three-parameter Weibull distribution (Weibull3), three-parameter lognormal distribution (LN3), Gumbel distribution and Pearson type Ⅲ distribution (P-Ⅲ). As time goes on, the relatively large precipitation area that calculated by the best model has changed from a point-like distribution with a short duration to a sheet-like distribution with a long duration. Under the influence of topography, the large center in northeast Chongqing is constantly moving northwards. It's operable and adaptable for reckoning on some other engineering meteorological parameters by selecting one or more optimal probability distribution model, whose parameters is estimated by L-moments, through the objective selection process.

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王穎,劉曉冉,程炳巖,孫佳.重慶多歷時(shí)極值降水的概率型優(yōu)選及應(yīng)用.氣象科學(xué),2020,40(4):560-568 WANG Ying, LIU Xiaoran, CHENG Bingyan, SUN Jia. Probability distribution model optimization and application of multiple duration extreme precipitation in Chongqing. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2020,40(4):560-568

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收稿日期:2018-10-09
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-09-04
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