MJO對春季中國東部大氣環(huán)流和降水的影響

doi:10.3969/2020jms.0075

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MJO對春季中國東部大氣環(huán)流和降水的影響
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                        10.3969/2020jms.0075
                    
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中圖分類號:P426.2
基金項(xiàng)目:Forewarned is Forearmed項(xiàng)目資助

Impacts of the Madden-Julian oscillation on springtime atmospheric circulation and rainfall over East China

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利用再分析資料分析了MJO（Madden-Julian Oscillation）不同位相對春季中國東部降水的影響。結(jié)果表明：MJO處于位相3時對應(yīng)長江及其以南地區(qū)降水增多，處于位相7時該區(qū)域降水減小。當(dāng)熱帶MJO對流從位相1東傳至位相4，與其相伴的北向輻散輻合流會在印度東北部—長江及副熱帶西北太平洋地區(qū)的對流層中低層產(chǎn)生明顯的輻合異常，且在MJO位相3時中國東部的輻合異常達(dá)到最大。從Rossby波源角度分析，這種輻合異常會增強(qiáng)對流層中低層氣旋性環(huán)流，導(dǎo)致MJO處于位相3時長江流域及其以南地區(qū)降水增多。同時，利用現(xiàn)代次季節(jié)和季節(jié)預(yù)報(bào)業(yè)務(wù)系統(tǒng)探討了MJO與降水的關(guān)系對降水預(yù)報(bào)技巧的影響，發(fā)現(xiàn)預(yù)報(bào)降水和再分析產(chǎn)品的相關(guān)系數(shù)在MJO處于位相3和7時有所增加。

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The impacts of MJO on springtime precipitation over East China has been analyzed with reanalysis data. It is found that rainfall tends to increase in MJO phase 3 and decrease in phase 7 over Yangtze River and its southern area. The circulation anomalies associated with the rainfall changeswith MJO phases appear to be linked to a zonal band of atmospheric convergence anomalies in mid-to-lower level atmosphere extending from northeast India to Yangtze River and the subtropical West Pacific when the tropical MJO convection moves eastward from phase 1 to 4. The convergence anomaly reaches maximum in MJO phase 3 over East China. The convergence will induce a cyclonic Rossby wave source through the vortex stretching term, promoting cyclonic circulation in mid-to-lower level atmosphere over East China. This provides a dynamical explanation linking the tropical convection anomaly and the rainfall increase over Yangtze River and its southern area during MJO phase 3. The impact of MJO phases on rainfall prediction skill has also been investigated in a modern sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction system. The correlation between rainfall from the reanalysis and from the prediction tends to increase in MJO phases 3 and 7 when the MJO impact is the strongest.

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王國民. MJO對春季中國東部大氣環(huán)流和降水的影響.氣象科學(xué),2020,40(5):679-685 WANG Guomin. Impacts of the Madden-Julian oscillation on springtime atmospheric circulation and rainfall over East China. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2020,40(5):679-685

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收稿日期:2020-08-15
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