歐亞積雪與京津冀秋季10—11月霾日頻數(shù)年際變率的聯(lián)系及其可能機制

doi:10.3969/2020jms.0071

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歐亞積雪與京津冀秋季10—11月霾日頻數(shù)年際變率的聯(lián)系及其可能機制
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                        10.3969/2020jms.0071
                    
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中圖分類號:P461.6
基金項目:大氣重污染成因與治理攻關(guān)項目（DQGG0104）

Relationship between the Eurasian snowpack and interannual variations of haze frequency over the Beijing—Tianjin—Hebei region in October and November as well as associated possible mechanisms

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基于1980—2017年京津冀地區(qū)定時觀測資料、歐亞陸面積雪資料、歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心（European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts，ECMWF）再分析資料，美國國家環(huán)境預(yù)報中心/大氣研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）再分析資料以及英國哈德萊中心提供的海冰密集度資料，分析了秋季10—11月京津冀霾日頻數(shù)年際變率與同期歐亞積雪的物理聯(lián)系，并通過氣候統(tǒng)計診斷和敏感性試驗探討了積雪異常影響京津冀10—11月霾日頻數(shù)年際變率的可能機理。結(jié)果表明，10—11月京津冀霾日頻數(shù)年際變率與同期東歐—西伯利亞平原地區(qū)（記為R_Eu；50°~60°N，40°~80°E）積雪厚度和積雪覆蓋度均呈現(xiàn)顯著的正相關(guān)關(guān)系。R_Eu積雪正異常與其西北側(cè)的挪威海—巴倫支海海域以及北歐到東歐地區(qū)上空大氣冷源密切聯(lián)系，該冷源可激發(fā)一個自上述區(qū)域途經(jīng)R_Eu一直到東北亞的準(zhǔn)正壓大尺度緯向Rossby波列來調(diào)制影響京津冀霾日頻數(shù)年際變率的關(guān)鍵環(huán)流系統(tǒng)，即東北亞異常反氣旋。上述異常環(huán)流背景下，京津冀地區(qū)對流層低層為偏南風(fēng)異常所控制，穩(wěn)定大氣層結(jié)易于建立，邊界層高度偏低、地面風(fēng)速偏弱且相對濕度偏高。該環(huán)境條件有利于霾天氣發(fā)生發(fā)展，使得同期霾日偏多。作為預(yù)測信號，當(dāng)前期9月楚科奇?！鞑ǜヌ睾：１伲ǘ啵r，10—11月京津冀霾日可能偏多（少）。

Abstract:

Based on the ground-timing observation data in the Beijing—Tianjin—Hebei (BTH) region, the surface Eurasian snowpack data, the ECMWF and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets,and the Hadley Centre's Arctic sea ice concentration data from 1980 to 2017, the present study investigates the physical linkage between the interannual variations of haze frequency over the BTH region in October—November and the concurrent Eurasian snowpack. Furthermore, the connected potential mechanisms are also discussed via the climatic statistical diagnosis and numerical sensitive experiments. Results show that the interannual variability of the October—November haze frequency over the BTH region shows a significant positive correlation with the simultaneous snow depth as well as the snow-cover extent over the eastern Europe—Siberian plain (R_Eufor short; 50°—60°N, 40°—80°E). Those localized positive snowpack anomalies are closely tied to the anomalous atmospheric diabatic cooling areas to its northwest side, i.e. Norwegian Sea—Barents Sea sector and the northern and eastern European regions, which can in turn excite a large-scale zonal quasi-barotropic Rossby wave train from the area around the key area R_Eu to the Northeast Asia, modulating the climate variability in the concurrent Northeast Asian anticyclonic anomaly, a key circulation system leading to a higher number of the simultaneous haze days in the BTH region. Under such circumstances, the lower troposphere over the BTH region is dominated by anomalous southerly winds. The in situ stable stratification can be easily set up, and the boundary layer height is lower than normal, along with the weakened surface wind velocity and enhanced surface relative humidity. The above environmental conditions are conducive to the occurrence and development of localized haze weather, thus resulting in more frequent haze events.As a precursory signals, the preceding decrease in the September Chukchi—West Beaufort Sea ice may lead to a higher number of October—November haze days over the BTH region,and vice versa.

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汪靖,常越,楊修群,柳艷菊,何金海.歐亞積雪與京津冀秋季10—11月霾日頻數(shù)年際變率的聯(lián)系及其可能機制.氣象科學(xué),2020,40(5):711-720 WANG Jing, CHANG Yue, YANG Xiuqun, LIU Yanju, HE Jinhai. Relationship between the Eurasian snowpack and interannual variations of haze frequency over the Beijing—Tianjin—Hebei region in October and November as well as associated possible mechanisms. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2020,40(5):711-720

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收稿日期:2020-08-02
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-11-07
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