青藏高原雪災(zāi)變化對熱帶海洋海溫異常響應(yīng)的數(shù)值模擬

doi:10.3969/2020jms.0055

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青藏高原雪災(zāi)變化對熱帶海洋海溫異常響應(yīng)的數(shù)值模擬
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                        10.3969/2020jms.0055
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):210044
基金項(xiàng)目:青海省科技廳基礎(chǔ)研究項(xiàng)目（2019-ZJ-603）；中國氣象局重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目（2019ZDIANXM11）

Numerical simulation of the response of the snow disaster on the Tibetan Plateau to the anomalous tropical ocean temperature

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摘要:

采用青藏高原72個(gè)氣象臺(tái)站日積雪觀測資料及 Hadley 中心海溫月平均資料，在分析高原雪災(zāi)頻數(shù)與海溫異常關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上，利用ECHAM5 模式進(jìn)行雪災(zāi)變化對熱帶海洋關(guān)鍵海域 SSTA響應(yīng)的敏感性試驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明：（1）1978-2014年青藏高原冬半年雪災(zāi)頻數(shù)總體呈減少趨勢，減幅為3.4次/（10 a），尤以1998年后極為顯著。雪災(zāi)空間上表現(xiàn)出自北向南遞增的分布形式，高值區(qū)主要集中在喜馬拉雅山脈北坡及嘉黎地區(qū)，而柴達(dá)木盆地及青海東部農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)為雪災(zāi)發(fā)生低值區(qū)。（2）雪災(zāi)頻數(shù)變化與赤道中東太平洋、熱帶印度洋海溫異常相關(guān)顯著，敏感性試驗(yàn)表明，在 El Niño模態(tài)強(qiáng)迫下，東亞大槽偏弱，新地島及烏拉爾山地區(qū)形成阻塞高壓，偏北氣流引導(dǎo)冷空氣從西伯利亞通道南下，在高原堆積，阿拉伯海暖濕氣流經(jīng)伊朗高原輸送至青藏高原；而在印度洋偶極子型海溫模態(tài)強(qiáng)迫下，中緯歐亞大陸顯示正異常，形成高壓，同緯度西北太平洋強(qiáng)的負(fù)異常，使西伯利亞冷空氣與西北太平洋南下濕潤氣流在南海轉(zhuǎn)為偏南風(fēng)進(jìn)入高原，北印度洋異常氣旋使部分南海-孟加拉灣暖濕氣流進(jìn)入高原，為高原降雪提供了水汽條件。

Abstract:

In this paper, the daily snow cover observation data from 72 stations on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the monthly mean sea surface temperature data from the Hadley Center are used. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the frequency of plateau snow disasters and sea temperature anomalies, the ECHAM5 model is used to respond to the SSTA(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) response of snow disasters to key tropical sea areas. Sensitivity test. The results show that:(1) from 1978 to 2014, the frequency of snow disasters on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the first half of the year showed a decreasing trend, with a decrease of 3.4 times/(10 a). The decrease in snow disasters after 1998 was particularly significant. The snow disaster spatially shows an increasing distribution form from north to south. The high-value areas are mainly concentrated in the northern slope of the Himalayas and the Jiali area, while the Qaidam Basin and the agricultural areas in eastern Qinghai are low-value areas where snow disasters occur. (2) The frequency change of snow disasters is significantly related to the anomalies of SST in the equatorial Middle East Pacific, and the tropical Indian Ocean. Sensitivity tests have shown that under El Niño modal forcing, the trough of East Asia is weak, and the Xindi Island and the Ural Mountains form high resistance. The north air flow guides cold air from the south of the Siberian channel and accumulates on the plateau. The warm and humid air flow from the Arabian Sea is transported to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau through the Iranian plateau; the formation of high pressure and strong negative anomalies in the Northwest Pacific at the same latitude caused the cold air of Siberia and the humid airflow southwest of the Pacific Northwest to turn into the southerly winds in the South China Sea and entered the plateau provides water vapor conditions.

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劉彩紅,余錦華,方珂,楊延華.青藏高原雪災(zāi)變化對熱帶海洋海溫異常響應(yīng)的數(shù)值模擬.氣象科學(xué),2020,40(6):810-818 LIU Caihong, YU Jinhua, FANG Ke, YANG Yanhua. Numerical simulation of the response of the snow disaster on the Tibetan Plateau to the anomalous tropical ocean temperature. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2020,40(6):810-818

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收稿日期:2020-01-22
最后修改日期:2020-07-06
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-01-12
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