西南地區(qū)持續(xù)性氣候事件的未來變化預(yù)估

doi:10.3969/2020jms.0057

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西南地區(qū)持續(xù)性氣候事件的未來變化預(yù)估
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                        10.3969/2020jms.0057
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目（2018YFE0196000）；國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41875111；40975058）

Prediction of future change of persistent climate event in Southwest China

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利用RegCM4.0區(qū)域氣候模式單向嵌套BCC_CSM1.1模式輸出資料進(jìn)行連續(xù)積分獲得的模擬預(yù)估數(shù)據(jù)，對西南地區(qū)未來2025-2055年在兩種溫室氣體排放情景下持續(xù)性干期和持續(xù)濕期事件的特征及其相對于歷史基準(zhǔn)期的變化進(jìn)行了預(yù)估分析。結(jié)果表明，最長持續(xù)干期和濕期在RCP4.5和RCP8.5兩種情景下的變化趨勢不一致，RCP8.5情景下的最長濕期和持續(xù)濕期事件的發(fā)生頻次相較RCP4.5并沒有大幅增加，而是比RCP4.5情景具有更高的年際變率特征。相對于歷史基準(zhǔn)期，兩種情景下的最長持續(xù)性氣候事件的日數(shù)和發(fā)生頻次在西南地區(qū)的東南部區(qū)域顯著性增加，而在川西高原地區(qū)顯著減少。對于持續(xù)干期發(fā)生的頻次FCDD和最長持續(xù)濕期而言，四川中部以及四川、云南和貴州三省鄰接處在RCP4.5情景下表現(xiàn)為顯著增加的區(qū)域在RCP8.5情景下轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)轱@著減少。未來幾十年西南地區(qū)持續(xù)性濕期和干期的分布特征可能更加趨于不均勻。

Abstract:

The future consecutive precipitation events and consecutive dry events under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP) and the change in comparison with historical periods in the Southwest China have been investigated by using the continuously integrate simulation data from the RegCM4.0 regional climate model one-way nested BCC_CSM1.1 model output. The results show that:the variation trends of the greatest consecutive dry and precipitation days are inconsistent with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The greatest precipitation days and the frequency of consecutive precipitation events with RCP8.5 scenario are not significantly increase in comparison with RCP4.5, but has higher inter-annual variability characteristics than RCP4.5 scenario. In comparison with the historical base period, the number of days and frequency of the greatest consecutive climate events with the two scenarios increased significantly in the southeast part of the southwest region, but decreased significantly in the western Sichuan Plateau. As for the frequency of consecutive dry and the number of days with the greatest consecutive rainfall, the areas in central Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces, which shows a significant decrease with the RCP4.5 scenario to change a significant increase with the RCP8.5 scenario. The distribution characteristics of consecutive precipitation and drought in the southwest region probably become more uneven in the future.

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胡祖恒,李永華,胡躍文,王勇.西南地區(qū)持續(xù)性氣候事件的未來變化預(yù)估.氣象科學(xué),2020,40(6):829-837 HU Zuheng, LI Yonghua, HU Yuewen, WANG Yong. Prediction of future change of persistent climate event in Southwest China. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2020,40(6):829-837

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收稿日期:2020-04-13
最后修改日期:2020-06-26
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-01-12
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