基于SPI指數(shù)的當前及未來中國東北地區(qū)干旱時空演變特征分析

doi:10.12306/2020jms.0001

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2021年第41卷第1期 >136-142. DOI:10.12306/2020jms.0001

基于SPI指數(shù)的當前及未來中國東北地區(qū)干旱時空演變特征分析
DOI:
                        10.12306/2020jms.0001
                    
CSTR:
                        
                    
作者:
                        
                        
                    
作者單位:
作者簡介:
通訊作者:
中圖分類號:X43
基金項目:國家重點研發(fā)計劃資助項目（2019YFC1510205）；國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目（41977410）

Spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Northeast China at present and future climate change based on SPI

Author:

Affiliation:

Fund Project:

摘要

圖/表

訪問統(tǒng)計

參考文獻

相似文獻

引證文獻

資源附件

文章評論

摘要:

基于降水量歷史觀測數(shù)據(jù)和氣候模式預(yù)估數(shù)據(jù)，采用標準化降水量指數(shù)（Standandized Precipitation Index，SPI）識別干旱事件，從干旱發(fā)生的頻率和強度特征分析其危險性，研究東北地區(qū)當前及未來不同氣候變化情景下干旱時空變化特征。結(jié)果顯示：（1） bcc-csm1-1對東北地區(qū)降水的模擬效果較好；（2）東北地區(qū)年降水量東南多西部少，未來遠期較近期降水增幅更為明顯，中、西部地區(qū)降水增幅略高于其他地區(qū)；（3）僅在RCP8.5情景下未來近期研究區(qū)中部地區(qū)干旱有加重的趨勢，主要源于該時段夏季降水的變化，其余時段皆呈干旱危險性減弱。

Abstract:

Most of the past related researchers were focus on drought characteristics during the past few decades. While it is also important to study the drought at future for the purpose of adapting climate change and reducing disaster risk. In this research, precipitation by observation and model simulation were used to calculate Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which could be used to identify drought events. By combining drought frequency and intensity to assess drought hazard in a region, then to study the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought hazard at present and future climate change. The results show that: (1) bcc-csm1-1 has better simulation effect on monthly precipitation in Northeast China among the Global Climate Model (GCMs). (2) Precipitation had a decreasing trend from southeast to western area in Northeast China. Precipitation increments were larger during 2070-2099 than 2020-2049 and they were larger in the middle than surrounding area. (3) Drought hazard decreased in Northeast China in the future, except for the middle of the study area under RCP8.5 during 2020-2049.

參考文獻

相似文獻

引證文獻

引用本文

張芯瑜,張琪,韓佳昊.基于SPI指數(shù)的當前及未來中國東北地區(qū)干旱時空演變特征分析.氣象科學(xué),2021,41(1):136-142 ZHANG Xinyu, ZHANG Qi, HAN Jiahao. Spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Northeast China at present and future climate change based on SPI. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(1):136-142

復(fù)制

文章指標

點擊次數(shù):
下載次數(shù):
HTML閱讀次數(shù):
引用次數(shù):

歷史

收稿日期:2019-04-04
最后修改日期:
錄用日期:
在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-03-20
出版日期:

文章二維碼

您是第位訪問者
氣象科學(xué) ® 2026 版權(quán)所有
技術(shù)支持：北京勤云科技發(fā)展有限公司

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒 激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说

引用本文

分享

相關(guān)視頻

文章指標

歷史

文章二維碼

抽查舔水白紧大视频,冲喜娘子超甜哒激情五月,亚洲黄色图片偷拍网站,亚洲三级黄片免费播放,91在线观看喷潮红桃,日韩精品在线观看一区二区,久久久久久久久久久久黄色片子,日产精品99久久久久久久久,欧洲亚洲另类图片小说