一次秋季臺(tái)風(fēng)倒槽大暴雨過(guò)程診斷及中尺度分析

doi:10.12306/2020jms.0035

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一次秋季臺(tái)風(fēng)倒槽大暴雨過(guò)程診斷及中尺度分析
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                        10.12306/2020jms.0035
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P458.1
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(41805036);江蘇省氣象學(xué)會(huì)青年科研基金項(xiàng)目(KQ201908);上海市氣象局"青年起航計(jì)劃"

A diagnosis and mesoscale analysis of an autumn severe rainstorm caused by typhoon trough

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利用FNL再分析資料,結(jié)合加密自動(dòng)站、多普勒雷達(dá)、衛(wèi)星資料和數(shù)值模式預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品,對(duì)2018年9月16—17日長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)一次典型的秋季臺(tái)風(fēng)倒槽大暴雨進(jìn)行了分析。結(jié)果表明:大暴雨是在遠(yuǎn)距離臺(tái)風(fēng)倒槽、低空急流和高空槽共同影響下,由冷暖空氣持續(xù)交匯激發(fā)的4個(gè)中尺度對(duì)流云團(tuán)活動(dòng)造成。第一階段長(zhǎng)江口區(qū)強(qiáng)暴雨發(fā)生在3號(hào)云團(tuán)快速增強(qiáng)期間,暴雨出現(xiàn)在云團(tuán)北側(cè)TBB梯度大值區(qū)中,雨強(qiáng)隨云頂溫度降低快速增強(qiáng);4號(hào)云團(tuán)緩慢東移造成第二階段暴雨,降水累積效應(yīng)使長(zhǎng)江口區(qū)降水量進(jìn)一步加大。東北風(fēng)(偏北風(fēng))與東南風(fēng)(偏東風(fēng))形成的地面中尺度輻合線是暴雨的關(guān)鍵觸發(fā)機(jī)制,氣旋性輻合中心的形成對(duì)雨團(tuán)增幅具有重要作用。多普勒雷達(dá)徑向速度場(chǎng)上中氣旋的形成提前于強(qiáng)暴雨增幅約30 min,具有良好的先兆性和預(yù)報(bào)預(yù)警意義。(超)低空急流持續(xù)的水汽和能量輸送、高低空急流耦合及冷空氣侵入形成的傾斜上升支和垂直環(huán)流圈、上干冷下暖濕的對(duì)流不穩(wěn)定層結(jié)有利于中尺度暴雨云團(tuán)的形成和維持。表征冷暖空氣結(jié)合的地面輻合線位置是暴雨落區(qū)預(yù)報(bào)的關(guān)鍵,對(duì)于秋季臺(tái)風(fēng)倒槽暴雨,要特別重視冷空氣對(duì)暴雨的觸發(fā)和增幅作用,基于實(shí)況資料監(jiān)測(cè)及時(shí)訂正模式預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)論。

Abstract:

Based on FNL reanalysis data,combined with intensive observation of automatic weather stations data, Doppler radar images,meteorological satellite data and numerical model prediction products, a typical autumn severe rainstorm caused by typhoon trough occurred in Yangtze River Delta region during 16-17 September 2018. Results show that it was caused by four mesoscale convective clouds triggered by sustained interaction of warm and cold air under the combined action of a remote typhoon trough, low-level jet and high-level through. The first stagerainstorm at the Yangtze riveroccur during the rapid enhancement of the third cloud, the heavy rainstorm area corresponds to the large TBB gradient area on the north side of the cloud, and the rain intensity increaserapidly as the cloud top temperature decreases.The slow eastward movement of the fourth cloud leads tothe second stage of rainstorm, and the accumulative effect of precipitation makes the rainfall amount further increases at the Yangtze river estuary.The surface mesoscale convergence line formed by northeasterly wind (northerly wind) and southeasterly wind (easterly wind) is the vital triggering mechanism, and the formation of cyclonic convergence center plays an important role in the increasing of rainfall.The formation of mesocyclone in doppler radar radial velocity field is about half an hour ahead of the increasing of heavy rain, which has important significance of forecast and warning.The sustained transportaction of water vapor and energy by lowlevel jet,inclined ascending branch and vertical circulation caused by the coupling of low and high level jet together with cold air intrusion,convective unstable stratification formed by dry-cold top and warm-wet bottom a benefit for the formation and maintenance of mesoscale storm clouds.The location of surface convergence line indicating the combination of cold and warm air is the key to the prediction of the rainstorm area.Special attention should paid to the effect of cold air activity on the triggering and increasing of rainstorm during similar autumn rainstorm caused by typhoon trough, timely modify model forecast conclusion based on real time observation.

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王麗芳,張雪蓉,廖一帆,濮梅娟.一次秋季臺(tái)風(fēng)倒槽大暴雨過(guò)程診斷及中尺度分析.氣象科學(xué),2021,41(2):209-220 WANG Lifang, ZHANG Xuerong, LIAO Yifan, PU Meijuan. A diagnosis and mesoscale analysis of an autumn severe rainstorm caused by typhoon trough. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(2):209-220

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收稿日期:2019-10-21
最后修改日期:2020-05-09
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-05-14
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