黃淮地區(qū)輻射模型適用性評價及參數(shù)優(yōu)化

doi:10.12306/2019jms.0055

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黃淮地區(qū)輻射模型適用性評價及參數(shù)優(yōu)化
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                        10.12306/2019jms.0055
                    
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中圖分類號:P422.1
基金項目:"科技助力經(jīng)濟2020"重點專項(KJZLJJ202002);國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(41405111);淮河流域氣象開放研究基金項目(HRM201809)

Suitability evaluationand parameter optimization of radiation model in Huanghuai Region

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利用1961—2015年黃淮地區(qū)8個輻射站太陽輻射和日照時數(shù)等常規(guī)氣象資料,分別評價6種常用的太陽總輻射和有效輻射估算模型在黃淮地區(qū)的適用性,同時采用多元回歸分析和迭代等方法,對輻射參數(shù)進(jìn)行優(yōu)化調(diào)整,建立了適合本地區(qū)的輻射最優(yōu)化估算模型。結(jié)果表明:童宏良公式和鄧根云公式分別在估算太陽總輻射和地面有效輻射時的誤差最小,相比其余的輻射估算模型,兩者在黃淮地區(qū)適用性最好。另外太陽總輻射本地化修正模型的相對誤差絕對值(value of Absolute Relative Error, ARE)和均方根誤差(Root Mean Squared Error, RMSE)分別為16.28%和1.730 MJ·m^-2·d^-1,優(yōu)于童宏良公式等常用太陽輻射估算模型;有效輻射本地化修正模型的ARE和RMSE分別為23.19%和1.404 MJ·m^-2·d^-1,優(yōu)于鄧根云公式等常用有效輻射估算模型;因此黃淮地區(qū)本地化輻射修正模型適用于當(dāng)?shù)氐乇韮糨椛涔浪?且具有較好的估算精度。

Abstract:

Based on the solar radiation and meteorology data of eight radiation sites from 1961 to 2015 in Huanghuai Region, the applicability of six common global solar radiation and surface effective radiation model was evaluated respectively, and multiple regression analysis and iteration method were used toestablished the radiation optimization estimation model suited for Huanghuai Region through the optimization adjustment of radiation parameter. Results show that TONG Hongliang and DENG Genyun formula have the minimum error on estimatin of global solar radiation and surface effective radiation respectively, so compared to the rest of the radiation estimation model, They formula have the best applicability in Huanghuai Region. In addition, the Absolutevalue ofRelative Error (ARE) value and the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) value on the localized correction model of global solar radiation are 16.28% and 1.730 MJ·m^-2·d^-1 respectively, better than common estimation model of global solar radiation such as TONG Hongliang formula, etc. The REA value and the root mean square error value on the localized correction model of surface effective radiation are 23.19% and 1.404 MJ·m^-2·d^-1 respectively, better than common estimation model of surface effective radiation such as DENG Genyun formula, etc. So the localized radiation correction model in HuanghuaiRegion is suitable for the local surface net radiation estimating, also has good estimation accuracy.

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王曉東,曹雯,伍瓊,岳偉,段春鋒.黃淮地區(qū)輻射模型適用性評價及參數(shù)優(yōu)化.氣象科學(xué),2021,41(2):245-252 WANG Xiaodong, CAO Wen, WU Qiong, YUE Wei, DUAN Chunfeng. Suitability evaluationand parameter optimization of radiation model in Huanghuai Region. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(2):245-252

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收稿日期:2019-10-08
最后修改日期:2019-12-01
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-05-14
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