Responses of summer high temperature of urban agglomeration in Yangtze River Delta to global warming in the future

doi:10.12306/2019jms.0043

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長(zhǎng)三角城市群夏季高溫對(duì)未來(lái)全球增暖的響應(yīng)
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                        10.12306/2019jms.0043
                    
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中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):P461
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目（2017YFA0603804）；國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（4187050223）

Responses of summer high temperature of urban agglomeration in Yangtze River Delta to global warming in the future

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摘要:

選取中國(guó)東部長(zhǎng)江三角洲城市群區(qū)域作為研究對(duì)象，采用中國(guó)區(qū)域最新的土地覆蓋資料ChinaLC，利用中尺度氣象模式WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting Model）對(duì)國(guó)際耦合模式比較計(jì)劃第五階段（CMIP5）中CESM（Community Earth System Model）氣候模式提供的RCP4.5（Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5）情景預(yù)估結(jié)果進(jìn)行動(dòng)力降尺度，以此模擬研究了未來(lái)增溫1.5 ℃/2.0 ℃時(shí)的區(qū)域氣候變化情況。結(jié)果表明：CESM數(shù)據(jù)作為側(cè)邊界資料驅(qū)動(dòng)WRF模式得到的降尺度模擬結(jié)果，與歷史時(shí)期（1996—2005年）的氣溫觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)相比，在空間分布上有較高的吻合度，該降尺度方案可以為未來(lái)區(qū)域氣溫變化的預(yù)估提供較為可靠的數(shù)據(jù)；長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)在到達(dá)全球增溫1.5 ℃（2025—2034年）/2.0 ℃（2042—2051年）時(shí)，區(qū)域平均氣溫與歷史同期相比分別升高了0.8 ℃和1.47 ℃；空間分布上，增溫最明顯的區(qū)域主要集中在城市及其周邊鑲嵌體區(qū)域；隨著全球增暖，區(qū)域平均高溫?zé)崂祟l次在增溫1.5 ℃/2.0 ℃時(shí)期較歷史同期分別增加了47%和100%，熱浪強(qiáng)度分別增加了71%和129%；進(jìn)一步通過(guò)對(duì)人體舒適度分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，與2.0 ℃升溫閾值相比，控制增暖在1.5 ℃以?xún)?nèi)，極不舒適覆蓋區(qū)域影響的人口數(shù)預(yù)計(jì)可減少5 602.9萬(wàn)人。

Abstract:

The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in eastern China was selected as the research object, and the latest land cover data of China—ChinaLC and the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) were used to dynamically downscale the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) scenario prediction results provided by the CESM (Community Earth System Model) climate model in the fifth phase of CMIP5, in order to study the regional climate change of the future warming of 1.5 ℃ / 2.0 ℃.Results show that the results of downscaling simulation using CESM data as the lateral boundary data driven WRF model are compared with the temperature observation data in the historical period (1996-2005), and the spatial distribution is in high agreement. This downscaling scheme can provide more reliable data for the prediction of regional temperature change in the future. The regional mean air temperature will be increased by 0.8 ℃ and 1.47 ℃ respectively if the global temperature would increase 1.5 ℃ / 2.0 ℃ in the Yangtze River Delta region compared with the historical period. In the spatial distribution, the most obvious change is the area of mosaic and cities. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the most obvious warming area is mainly concentrated in the city and its surrounding mosaic area. In addition, with the development of global warming, the frequency of high-temperature heatwaves will increase 47% times and 100% times than that of historical period, and the intensity of high-temperature heatwaves will increase 71% and 129% times, respectively during the period of increasing temperature 1.5 ℃ / 2.0 ℃. Compared with the 2.0 ℃ temperature rise threshold, the number of people affected by the most uncomfortable areas will be reduced by 56.029 million if the controlled warming is within 1.5 ℃.

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王瑩,馬紅云,李?？?長(zhǎng)三角城市群夏季高溫對(duì)未來(lái)全球增暖的響應(yīng).氣象科學(xué),2021,41(3):285-294 WANG Ying, MA Hongyun, LI Haijun. Responses of summer high temperature of urban agglomeration in Yangtze River Delta to global warming in the future. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(3):285-294

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收稿日期:2019-06-04
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