北極地區(qū)極晝氣候突變現(xiàn)象及轉(zhuǎn)型成因研究

doi:10.12306/2020jms.0031

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北極地區(qū)極晝氣候突變現(xiàn)象及轉(zhuǎn)型成因研究
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                        10.12306/2020jms.0031
                    
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中圖分類號(hào):P463
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目（2016YFA0602100）；公益行業(yè)（氣象）科研專項(xiàng)（GYHY201506011）；國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41975134；40975040）

Analysis of Arctic abrupt climatic change and the causes of the climatic type transition during the polar day

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基于1979—2018年的NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II逐日再分析數(shù)據(jù)，采用模糊C均值聚類算法（Fuzzy C-Means Algorithm， FCMA）將北極地區(qū)極晝期間的氣候分為寒干型、半寒干型、半暖濕型及暖濕型4種。在夏季北極海冰快速減少的氣候背景下，這4種氣候型控制的區(qū)域也相應(yīng)發(fā)生了明顯變化。其中，寒干型氣候面積以-7.241×10⁴ km²·a^-1的速率快速減少；半寒干型氣候面積以6.489×10⁴ km²·a^-1的速率快速增加，且洋面上的氣候型變化比陸地更為顯著。1999年前后，北極地區(qū)主控氣候發(fā)生突變現(xiàn)象：由寒干型氣候?yàn)橹鬓D(zhuǎn)化為半寒干型氣候?yàn)橹鳎绕湓诔破婧：蜄|西伯利亞海表現(xiàn)突出。成因分析表明海冰面積—凈短波輻射—大氣增暖增濕—向下長(zhǎng)波輻射—?dú)夂蛐娃D(zhuǎn)變之間存在密切聯(lián)系，極晝期海冰面積異常減少對(duì)其氣候轉(zhuǎn)型突變起到了重要作用。

Abstract:

Based on the daily NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II data from 1979 to 2018, the Fuzzy C-Means Algorithm (FCMA) was used to classify the climate during the Arctic polar day into four climate types, which were the cold-dry type, the semi-cold-dry type, the semi-warm-wet type, and the warm-wet type. Results show that under the climate background of rapid reduction of Arctic sea ice in summer, the regions controlled by these four climate types also change significantly. Among them, the area of the cold-dry type decreases rapidly with the rate up to -7.241×10⁴ km²·a^-1, the semi-cold-dry type increases at a rate of 6.489×10⁴ km²·a^-1,and the climate change on the ocean is more significant than that on the land. Around 1999, the dominant climate in the Arctic changed from cold-dry type to semi-cold-dry type, especially in the Chukchi Sea and East Siberian Sea. The genetic analysis shows that there is a close relationship between sea ice area, net short wave radiation, atmospheric warming and humidification, downward long-wave radiation as well as climate type transformation, moreover, the abnormal decreasing of sea ice area in polar day plays an important role in the abrupt change of climate transformation.

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李媛,張錄軍,趙鵬,郭東琳.北極地區(qū)極晝氣候突變現(xiàn)象及轉(zhuǎn)型成因研究.氣象科學(xué),2021,41(3):323-330 LI Yuan, ZHANG Lujun, ZHAO Peng, GUO Donglin. Analysis of Arctic abrupt climatic change and the causes of the climatic type transition during the polar day. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(3):323-330

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收稿日期:2020-03-11
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-07-05
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