基于ERA5再分析資料的余姚地區(qū)陣風(fēng)預(yù)報模型探究

doi:10.12306/2020jms.0063

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基于ERA5再分析資料的余姚地區(qū)陣風(fēng)預(yù)報模型探究
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                        10.12306/2020jms.0063
                    
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中圖分類號:P425.4
基金項目:寧波市科學(xué)技術(shù)局科技惠民項目（2017C50030）；寧波市氣象科技計劃資助項目（NBQX2018014B；NBQX2020015B）

Analysis of wind gust forecast model in Yuyao based on the reanalysis data ERA5

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摘要:

利用2007-2017年余姚地區(qū)44個氣象自動站觀測數(shù)據(jù)和歐洲中心ERA5再分析資料，對余姚地區(qū)日極大風(fēng)分布進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計分析，并提出一種本地化的經(jīng)驗陣風(fēng)預(yù)報模型（雷暴日除外）。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：余姚地區(qū)日極大風(fēng)呈正態(tài)分布，風(fēng)力峰值為4~5級，平均每年大風(fēng)日占比達(dá)7.03%，累計大風(fēng)時次占比3.32%，年平均大風(fēng)日26 d。風(fēng)力越小，陣風(fēng)與平均風(fēng)之間的線性擬合效果越好。影響陣風(fēng)預(yù)報的因子主要有10 m平均風(fēng)速、925 hPa風(fēng)速、地面粗糙度、摩擦速度和3 h變壓。6級及以下陣風(fēng)預(yù)報中，業(yè)務(wù)中的陣風(fēng)經(jīng)驗系數(shù)1.4容易造成余姚本地陣風(fēng)預(yù)報偏低，適用于余姚本地陣風(fēng)預(yù)報經(jīng)驗系數(shù)為1.775；6級以上陣風(fēng)預(yù)報經(jīng)驗方程考慮了平均風(fēng)速、垂直動量下傳、水平動量傳輸、地面摩擦和海拔高度訂正，其與925 hPa風(fēng)速的平方呈正相關(guān)，與摩擦速度呈自然指數(shù)相關(guān)，經(jīng)驗方程相對于經(jīng)驗陣風(fēng)系數(shù)的預(yù)報擬合優(yōu)度提升了59.61%；經(jīng)驗陣風(fēng)預(yù)報方程通過了2018-2019年的數(shù)據(jù)檢驗，該方程對1~2級陣風(fēng)預(yù)報偏高，3~5級效果最好，6級陣風(fēng)的預(yù)報偏低；6級以上的陣風(fēng)等級預(yù)報準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)55.2%。地形摩擦作用在冷空氣大風(fēng)與臺風(fēng)大風(fēng)過程中尤為重要，這兩類過程陣風(fēng)系數(shù)分布類似，但臺風(fēng)帶來的動量下傳比冷空氣更為明顯。

Abstract:

Based on the observation data from 44 Automatic Weather Stations(AWS) in Yuyao and the reanalysis data ERA5 from ECMWF during 2007 to 2017, a statistical analysis on daily maximum wind gust of each AWS was conducted and a Localized Empirical Wind Gust Prediction Model(LEWGPM) without considering thunderstorm day was proposed. Results show that daily maximum wind gust is normally distributed with the peak of wind scale 4-5. The averaged gale day per year is 26, which account for 7.03% yearly and 3.32% hourly. It also shows the weaker the wind, the better the liner fitting between wind gust and mean winds. Some surveys on the factors that may influence the wind gust prediction were made and 10 meter mean winds, 925 hPa mean winds, roughness, friction velocity and 3 hours pressure change appear good reactions were found out. In the LEWGPM below or equal to wind scale 6, traditional empirical coefficient 1.4 has the risk of weakening the wind gust forecast and the new empirical coefficient 1.775 will lead to better forecast. When it comes to LEWGPM above wind scale 6, the mean winds, downward momentum transportation, horizontal momentum transfer, roughness and latitude are took into consideration, which found out it liner fitting to squared 925 hPa mean winds and logarithmic correlation to friction velocity. Compared to traditional empirical coefficient forecast, LEWGPM above wind scale 6 promoted 59.61%. Finally, the LEWGPM with data from 2018 to 2019 was tested, which figure out that its prediction strengthens wind scale 1-2, weakens wind scale 6, fits well with wind scale 3-5, and the accuracy of wind scale over 6 is 55.2%. The topographic friction is particularly important during typhoons and cold air events. Both the two gale processes share the similar distribution of gust factor but the different downward momentum, which means the typhoons always transfer more momentum downward.

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呂藝影,牛海林,郝囝,劉建勇,高益波.基于ERA5再分析資料的余姚地區(qū)陣風(fēng)預(yù)報模型探究.氣象科學(xué),2021,41(4):551-560 Lü Yiying, NIU Hailin, HAO Jian, LIU Jianyong, GAO Yibo. Analysis of wind gust forecast model in Yuyao based on the reanalysis data ERA5. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(4):551-560

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收稿日期:2020-06-23
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-10-13
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