一種基于全球動(dòng)力模式和SMART原理結(jié)合的統(tǒng)計(jì)降尺度區(qū)域季節(jié)氣候預(yù)測(cè)方法

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0049

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一種基于全球動(dòng)力模式和SMART原理結(jié)合的統(tǒng)計(jì)降尺度區(qū)域季節(jié)氣候預(yù)測(cè)方法
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0049
                    
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中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):P461
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目（2018YFC1505900）；國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金創(chuàng)新研究群體項(xiàng)目（41621005）

A statistical downscaling method for regional seasonal climate prediction with combined global dynamical model and SMART principle

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針對(duì)江蘇夏季旱澇和高溫?zé)崂说犬惓夂虻念A(yù)測(cè)難題，以江蘇夏季站點(diǎn)降水和氣溫為預(yù)測(cè)目標(biāo)，建立了一種基于全球動(dòng)力模式BCC_CSM1.1（m）和最優(yōu)可預(yù)測(cè)氣候模態(tài)和異常相對(duì)傾向（SMART）原理結(jié)合的統(tǒng)計(jì)降尺度季節(jié)氣候預(yù)測(cè)方法。利用歷史觀測(cè)資料和SVD方法提取決定中國(guó)夏季降水異常相對(duì)傾向的同期熱帶地區(qū)向外長(zhǎng)波輻射（Outgoing Longwave Radiation，OLR）和北半球中高緯500 hPa位勢(shì)高度場(chǎng)異常相對(duì)傾向的最優(yōu)可預(yù)測(cè)氣候模態(tài)，并利用逐步回歸法構(gòu)建其與同期江蘇站點(diǎn)降水和氣溫異常相對(duì)傾向同期關(guān)系的統(tǒng)計(jì)降尺度模型；將動(dòng)力模式對(duì)最優(yōu)可預(yù)測(cè)氣候模態(tài)的預(yù)測(cè)帶入統(tǒng)計(jì)降尺度模型，實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)區(qū)域降水和氣溫異常相對(duì)傾向的預(yù)測(cè)；最后通過(guò)引入觀測(cè)的近期背景異常實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)降尺度的降水和氣溫總距平的預(yù)測(cè)。通過(guò)對(duì)1991—2019年江蘇夏季降水和氣溫的回報(bào)檢驗(yàn)表明，本文建立的統(tǒng)計(jì)降尺度模型效果較BCC_CSM1.1（m）動(dòng)力模式的直接預(yù)測(cè)效果有顯著提高，為區(qū)域精細(xì)化季節(jié)氣候預(yù)測(cè)提供了一種有效的手段。

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To solve the problems of abnormal climate prediction such as summertime drought, flood and heat wave in Jiangsu, in this paper, a statistical downscaling method for regional seasonal climate prediction is developed with combined global dynamical model BCC_CSM1.1(m) and selected predictable climate modes (SM) and anomalous relative tendency (ART), i.e., SMART-based principle for summertime rainfall and air temperature. In this method, the principal climate modes in the ARTs of summertime tropical OLR and mid and high latitude 500 hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere that determine the simultaneous national-wide ART of rainfall in China are firstly extracted with historical observed data and SVD analysis, and a statistical downscaling model for the simultaneous relationship between those modes and ARTs of rainfall and air temperature in Jiangsu Province is constructed with stepwise regression method. Then, with the statistical downscaling model, the regional ARTs of rainfall and temperature are predicted with predicted SMs by the global dynamical model. Finally, the total anomalies of rainfall and air temperature are obtained by adding the recent background anomalies to the predicted ARTs. The hindcasts for 1991-2019 show that the method proposed in this study significantly improves the regional predictions as compared with those by dynamical model itself. Thus, this study provides an effective tool for fined regional seasonal climate prediction.

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王昱,楊修群,孫旭光,房佳蓓,陶凌峰,張志琦.一種基于全球動(dòng)力模式和SMART原理結(jié)合的統(tǒng)計(jì)降尺度區(qū)域季節(jié)氣候預(yù)測(cè)方法.氣象科學(xué),2021,41(5):569-583 WANG Yu, YANG Xiuqun, SUN Xuguang, FANG Jiabei, TAO Lingfeng, ZHANG Zhiqi. A statistical downscaling method for regional seasonal climate prediction with combined global dynamical model and SMART principle. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(5):569-583

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收稿日期:2021-04-29
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