北半球夏季熱帶季節(jié)內(nèi)振蕩影響我國(guó)夏季降水的規(guī)律和預(yù)測(cè)方法

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0051

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北半球夏季熱帶季節(jié)內(nèi)振蕩影響我國(guó)夏季降水的規(guī)律和預(yù)測(cè)方法
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0051
                    
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中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):P466
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目（2018YFC1505902）；國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金創(chuàng)新研究群體項(xiàng)目（41621005）

Regularity and prediction method of the influence of boreal summer tropical intraseasonal oscillation on summer rainfall of China

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摘要:

利用1979—2018年夏季逐日觀測(cè)和再分析數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)北半球夏季熱帶季節(jié)內(nèi)振蕩影響我國(guó)夏季降水的規(guī)律和預(yù)測(cè)方法開(kāi)展了研究。首先，利用非傳統(tǒng)濾波即異常相對(duì)傾向（Anomalous Relative Tendency，ART）方法獲取了氣象要素的次季節(jié)變化分量，并采用EOF分析方法提取了北半球夏季熱帶主要季節(jié)內(nèi)振蕩信號(hào)，結(jié)果表明向外長(zhǎng)波輻射（Outgoing Longwave Radiation，OLR）異常相對(duì)傾向EOF前兩個(gè)模態(tài)共同反映了北半球夏季起源于印度洋并向東和向北傳播的、具有30~60 d周期的季節(jié)內(nèi)振蕩（Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation，BSISO）信號(hào)?；貧w分析表明，該季節(jié)內(nèi)振蕩信號(hào)能夠?qū)е庐?dāng)?shù)丶捌浔泵娴貐^(qū)低層風(fēng)場(chǎng)和位勢(shì)高度場(chǎng)異常，影響該地區(qū)及其北面地區(qū)的水汽輻合輻散，從而能引起我國(guó)尤其是我國(guó)南方地區(qū)季節(jié)內(nèi)旱澇變化，并一定程度上反映了我國(guó)異常雨帶的向北推進(jìn)過(guò)程。而后，將提取的熱帶主要季節(jié)內(nèi)振蕩信號(hào)作為預(yù)測(cè)因子，將降水異常相對(duì)傾向作為先行預(yù)板對(duì)象，利用多元線性回歸方法構(gòu)建了我國(guó)夏季旬降水異常相對(duì)傾向的預(yù)報(bào)模型，將預(yù)報(bào)的旬降水異常相對(duì)傾向加上觀測(cè)已知的降水近期背景距平，從而得到旬降水距平的預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果。通過(guò)歷史回報(bào)和交叉檢驗(yàn)，評(píng)估了該模型對(duì)梅雨期我國(guó)江淮流域降水（包括2020年梅汛期異常降水）的次季節(jié)預(yù)測(cè)能力。

Abstract:

Based on the daily observational and reanalysis data for 1979-2018, regularity and prediction method of the influence of boreal summer tropical intraseasonal oscillations on summer rainfall over China were investigated. The Anomalous Relative Tendency (ART) method was used to extract the subseasonal components of meteorological elements, then the EOF analysis was used to extract main boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in the tropics. Results show that the first two EOF modes of the ART for OLR are orthogonal in time and space, which reflect the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO). Originated from Indian Ocean, the BSISO travels eastward as well as northward with a period of about 30-60 days. The results of regression analysis show that the BSISO leads to anomalies in the low-level wind field and geopotential height field in the local and its north area, consequently affects the convergences and divergences of water vapor in the local and its north area, which as a result, have impacts on the intraseasonal droughts and floods over China, especially the southern China, and to some extent reflect the northward propagation of anomalous rain belt in China. On the basis of the regularity, a subseasonal forecast model of summer precipitation over China has been constructed with the prediction of precipitation anomaly converted into the prediction of ART for precipitation by linear regression using the BSISO captured. The forecast of intraseasonal anomalous precipitation is output by combining the predicted ART for precipitation with observed recent background anomaly for precipitation. Through hindcast and cross validation, the intraseasonal rainfall skills of subseasonal forecast models have been evaluated in the Yangtze-Huaihe region during the Meiyu period (including the record-breaking Meiyu rainfall around the Yangtze River in 2020).

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王安英,房佳蓓,楊修群.北半球夏季熱帶季節(jié)內(nèi)振蕩影響我國(guó)夏季降水的規(guī)律和預(yù)測(cè)方法.氣象科學(xué),2021,41(5):606-616 WANG Anying, FANG Jiabei, YANG Xiuqun. Regularity and prediction method of the influence of boreal summer tropical intraseasonal oscillation on summer rainfall of China. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(5):606-616

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收稿日期:2021-05-28
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