不同環(huán)流形勢下浙江中西部地區(qū)強對流的診斷預(yù)報方法

doi:10.12306/2020jms.0056

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2021年第41卷第5期 >687-695. DOI:10.12306/2020jms.0056

不同環(huán)流形勢下浙江中西部地區(qū)強對流的診斷預(yù)報方法
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                        10.12306/2020jms.0056
                    
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中圖分類號:P458.2
基金項目:浙江省氣象局預(yù)報員專項項目（2018YBY05）；衢州市氣象局一般項目（2018QZ08）

Diagnosis and forecast method of severe convection under different synoptic situations in the west-central of Zhejiang

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基于地面觀測和探空資料、NCEP／NCAR 1°×1°再分析資料，利用中尺度分析技術(shù)，對2008—2018年暖季（4—10月）發(fā)生在浙江中西部地區(qū)（簡稱浙中西）的65次強對流天氣過程進行天氣形勢配置，得到發(fā)生在浙中西的雷暴大風、冰雹、短時強降水及混合性強對流的規(guī)律特征。結(jié)果如下：（1）浙中西強對流天氣出現(xiàn)的大尺度環(huán)流有5種基本流型配置：干冷氣流型（6.2%）、鋒生切變型（13.8%）、暖濕氣流型（38.5%）、副高邊緣型（30.7%）、臺風外圍型（10.8%），并給出了每種概念模型下的主要物理機制和中尺度特征。（2）分析了不同概念模型下典型強對流天氣個例，簡要歸納出各種流型下的主要系統(tǒng)配置和演變規(guī)律，并將抽象的概念模型應(yīng)用到實際預(yù)報分析中。（3）分析不同流型下強對流的閾值范圍，如干冷氣流型I_w大風指數(shù)平均為26.1 m·s^-1，850 hPa與500 hPa溫差可達27.5℃，500 hPa相對濕度平均只有15％等，提煉出相似環(huán)流形勢下不同強天氣的主要預(yù)報指標，為強對流預(yù)報提供量化參考。

Abstract:

Based on observations meteorological data and NCEP/NCAR 1°×1° reanalysis data, the meso-scale weather comprehensive analysis was used to configure the weather situation of 65 severe convective weather processes occurred in central and western Zhejiang in warm seasons (April to October) from 2008 to 2018. The regular characteristics of thunderstorm, gale, hail, short-term heavy precipitation and mixed strong convection occurred in central and western Zhejiang were obtained. The conclusions are:(1) there are five basic synoptic situation configurations of severe convection in central and western Zhejiang, that is, dry and cold advection type (6.2%), frontogenesis and shear type (13.8%), warm and wet advection type (38.5%), the edge of subtropical high type (30.7%), and typhoon periphery type (10.8%), moreover, main physical mechanism and meso-scale characteristics of each conceptual model are provided. (2) The typical severe convective weather events are analyzed under different conceptual models to make a conclusion of the evolution features of occurrence, development and reduction, so that the abstract conceptual model applied. (3) The threshold ranges of different severe convective in different flow patterns is analyzed, such as the average I_w index is 26.1 m·s^-1, the temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa can reach 27.5℃,and the relative humidity at 500 hPa is only 15%, which distinguish the different identification methods under similar circulation conditions and provide a quantitative reference index.

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毛程燕,鄭倩,龔理卿,荊思佳,李浩文.不同環(huán)流形勢下浙江中西部地區(qū)強對流的診斷預(yù)報方法.氣象科學(xué),2021,41(5):687-695 MAO Chengyan, ZHENG Qian, GONG Liqing, JING Sijia, LI Haowen. Diagnosis and forecast method of severe convection under different synoptic situations in the west-central of Zhejiang. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(5):687-695

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收稿日期:2020-03-03
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-11-24
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