氣候變化背景下江蘇河蟹養(yǎng)殖高溫?zé)岷︼L(fēng)險評估

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0017

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2021年第41卷第5期 >696-702. DOI:10.12306/2021jms.0017

氣候變化背景下江蘇河蟹養(yǎng)殖高溫?zé)岷︼L(fēng)險評估
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0017
                    
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中圖分類號:S932.5
基金項目:國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目（2019YFD1002201）；中國氣象局國內(nèi)外產(chǎn)量預(yù)報專項"精細(xì)化河蟹養(yǎng)殖氣象服務(wù)技術(shù)研究與應(yīng)用"；中央財政、中國氣象局鄉(xiāng)村振興服務(wù)專項

Risk assessment and regionalization of high temperature damage in river crab-farming under climate change scenarios

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利用江蘇省及周邊共85個氣象站觀測資料，篩選出夏季高溫強度、持續(xù)時間、降水量和日照時數(shù)作為高溫?zé)岷Φ年P(guān)鍵氣象因子，構(gòu)建高溫?zé)岷C合指數(shù)。在此基礎(chǔ)上，利用高溫?zé)岷Πl(fā)生頻率和河蟹因災(zāi)死亡率加權(quán)建立風(fēng)險評估模型，將河蟹高溫?zé)岷︼L(fēng)險劃分為三個等級，結(jié)合地形和土壤的適宜性，最終得出江蘇河蟹高溫?zé)岷︼L(fēng)險區(qū)劃圖。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，河蟹高溫?zé)岷Φ母唢L(fēng)險區(qū)位于以高淳為中心的江蘇西南部，沿淮和淮北東部沿海地區(qū)風(fēng)險值最低，淮北西部—沿江東部的風(fēng)險值介于二者之間。年代際高風(fēng)險區(qū)面積有逐漸擴大趨勢，1991年以來已外擴到沿江和蘇南大部分地區(qū)，達(dá)到歷史極值。河蟹高溫?zé)岷︼L(fēng)險增大，需加強防范。

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Using observational data from 85 meteorological stations in Jiangsu and its surrounding areas from 1961 to 2019, an aggregated evaluation index was built by weighting the summer high temperature intensity, duration, precipitation, and sunshine hours. On this basis, a risk assessment model was established by using the frequency of high temperature heat damage and the weighted mortality of river crabs due to disasters. In the model, the risk of high temperature heat damage was divided into three grades. Combined with the suitability of topography and soil, the risk zoning map of high temperature heat damage of river crabs in Jiangsu was finally obtained. The results showed that the high-risk area of high temperature and heat damage is located in the southwestern Jiangsu with Gaochun as the center, and the coastal area along the Huai River and the eastern part of Huaibei have the lowest risk. The risk of the area between the western part and the eastern part of f Huaibei is somewhere in between. The decadal analysis shows that the area of high risk has a gradual expansion trend. Since 1991, it has expanded to most areas along the Yangtze River and southern Jiangsu, reaching the historical extreme. The risk of high temperature and heat damage to river crabs is increasing, and prevention needs to be strengthened.

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張旭暉,俞子閑,時冬頭,任義方,王敦糾,吳洪顏.氣候變化背景下江蘇河蟹養(yǎng)殖高溫?zé)岷︼L(fēng)險評估.氣象科學(xué),2021,41(5):696-702 ZHANG Xuhui, YU Zixian, SHI Dongtou, REN Yifang, WANG Dunjiu, WU Hongyan. Risk assessment and regionalization of high temperature damage in river crab-farming under climate change scenarios. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(5):696-702

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收稿日期:2020-11-05
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-11-24
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