CWRF對中國近海熱帶氣旋活動季節(jié)和年際變化及環(huán)境場影響的模擬

doi:10.12306/2020jms.0032

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CWRF對中國近海熱帶氣旋活動季節(jié)和年際變化及環(huán)境場影響的模擬
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                        10.12306/2020jms.0032
                    
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中圖分類號:P444
基金項目:國家氣候中心中國精細化區(qū)域氣候預(yù)測系統(tǒng)研發(fā)項目（NCC2016013）

Simulation of the tropical cyclone annual and interannual activity near China and impacts of large-scale environmental fields with CWRF

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利用歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報中心的ERA-Interim再分析資料驅(qū)動CWRF模式對1982-2016年中國近海的熱帶氣旋活動進行了模擬,分析了CWRF對熱帶氣旋頻數(shù)季節(jié)、年際變化和路徑的模擬能力,并探討了環(huán)境場模擬對熱帶氣旋模擬的影響。結(jié)果表明:CWRF能夠合理模擬熱帶氣旋頻數(shù)的季節(jié)和年際變化,但模擬的頻數(shù)較觀測總體偏低,季節(jié)變化模擬總體優(yōu)于年際變化的模擬;模式基本上能模擬出熱帶氣旋路徑密度的空間分布,但CWRF明顯總體低估了氣旋路徑密度。進一步分析發(fā)現(xiàn),模式模擬的環(huán)境場對模擬結(jié)果具有十分重要的影響。850 hPa氣旋性與反氣旋性環(huán)流異常對熱帶氣旋頻數(shù)影響顯著;200 hPa反氣旋性環(huán)流異常與東亞西風(fēng)急流對熱帶氣旋路徑影響較大;副高會影響洋面對流運動從而影響熱帶氣旋頻數(shù),其南側(cè)偏東風(fēng)則會影響熱帶氣旋路徑;垂直風(fēng)切變偏小,在不同緯度對熱帶氣旋的影響是不同的。

Abstract:

The ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Mid-range Weather Forecast Center was used to drive CWRF model and to simulate the Tropical Cyclones (TCs) occurred during 1982-2016 near China. The effects of environmental fields on TC simulation were discussed as well. Results indicate that: CWRF could reasonably simulate the seasonal and interannual changes of TC frequency, but the simulated TC frequency is lower than observation, and annual cycle simulation is better than interannual variation simulation. Basically, CWRF could simulate TC track density spatial distribution, but the model obviously underestimated the observed TC track density. Further analysis reveals that environmental field plays an important role in the TC simulation. Cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation anomaly at 850 hPa is associated with TC frequency. East Asia westerlies jet and anticyclonic circulation anomaly at 200 hPa mainly affect the TC track density. Subtropical High (SH) is corresponding with TC development by influencing the convection over sea surface, and SH easterlies can cause track deviations as well. The smaller Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) has different impacts at different latitude.

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史文茹,陳海山,梁信忠. CWRF對中國近海熱帶氣旋活動季節(jié)和年際變化及環(huán)境場影響的模擬.氣象科學(xué),2021,41(6):720-727 SHI Wenru, CHEN Haishan, LIANG Xinzhong. Simulation of the tropical cyclone annual and interannual activity near China and impacts of large-scale environmental fields with CWRF. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(6):720-727

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收稿日期:2020-04-15
最后修改日期:2020-04-19
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-01-10
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