中國(guó)東部區(qū)域極端降水事件特征——兩種方法監(jiān)測(cè)對(duì)比

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0004

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中國(guó)東部區(qū)域極端降水事件特征——兩種方法監(jiān)測(cè)對(duì)比
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0004
                    
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中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):P458
基金項(xiàng)目:國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃重點(diǎn)專(zhuān)項(xiàng)（2018YFC1505804；2018YFC1507704）

Characteristics of extreme precipitation events in eastern China — a comparison of the two methods of detection

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基于中國(guó)區(qū)域地面降水格點(diǎn)日值數(shù)據(jù)集,對(duì)比國(guó)家氣候中心業(yè)務(wù)暴雨指數(shù)和區(qū)域極端強(qiáng)度-持續(xù)時(shí)間綜合(Region-Extreme-Intensity-Duration,REID)指數(shù)識(shí)別區(qū)域極端降水事件方法,給出了中國(guó)5個(gè)區(qū)域極端降水事件(Regional Extreme Precipitation, REP)的頻數(shù)、強(qiáng)度、影響面積以及持續(xù)時(shí)間統(tǒng)計(jì)規(guī)律及變化特征,探討了兩種方法識(shí)別結(jié)果存在的差異。結(jié)果表明:(1)兩種方法識(shí)別持續(xù)時(shí)間為1~2 d,影響面積為200 000 km²左右的極端降水事件統(tǒng)計(jì)、氣候特征相近。(2)REID法能客觀識(shí)別華南和長(zhǎng)江流域地區(qū)3 d以上的持續(xù)性REP,業(yè)務(wù)法會(huì)將其分割為多次降水過(guò)程。此外,REID法無(wú)日降水閾值,適用于監(jiān)測(cè)日降水量小于50 mm的極端降水事件。再者,REID法可識(shí)別較小尺度REP,而業(yè)務(wù)法因降水主觀比例的限制導(dǎo)致對(duì)此的監(jiān)測(cè)存在不足。(3)業(yè)務(wù)法每日確定降水中心,有利于識(shí)別降水中心移動(dòng)較快的極端降水事件。此外,REID法所識(shí)別的極端區(qū)域一般小于業(yè)務(wù)法基于50 mm的極端區(qū)域。在極端降水監(jiān)測(cè)中,兩種方法相互協(xié)作,取長(zhǎng)補(bǔ)短,可以有效提高區(qū)域水災(zāi)預(yù)警預(yù)防能力。

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Based on the gridded daily precipitation database provided by China Meteorological Administration, the operational rainstorm index defined by the National Climate Center of China and the Region-Extreme-Intensity-Duration(REID) index were compared to identify Regional Extreme Precipitation(REP)event. The statistics and characteristics of the frequency, intensity, area of influence and duration of REP in five regions of China were given, and the differences between the two methods were further explored. Results show that: (1) the identification methods of the two methods last for 1-2 days and affect an area of about 200 000 km², with similar statistical and climatic characteristics. (2)REID allows the existence of intermittent precipitation, and the frequency of the identified continuous REP over three days in South China and the Yangtze River Basin is significantly more than the results of the operational method, which always divides it into multiple precipitation events. Due to no threshold limit, REID is applicable to the monitoring of REP with daily precipitation less than 50 mm in North China and Northeast China. In addition, REID shows superiority on identifying small scale REP while the operational method has insufficient monitoring because of the limitation of subjective proportion of precipitation. (3)The operational method determines the precipitation center every day, which is beneficial to identify the REP that the precipitation center moves quickly. Besides, the extreme region identified by REID method is generally smaller than the 50 mm-based extreme areas of operational method. To sum up, in the monitoring of extreme precipitation, these two methods work together to complement each other, which can effectively improve the ability of regional flood warning and prevention.

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葉夢(mèng)茜,余錦華,謝潔宏,葉天.中國(guó)東部區(qū)域極端降水事件特征——兩種方法監(jiān)測(cè)對(duì)比.氣象科學(xué),2021,41(6):752-760 YE Mengxi, YU Jinhua, XIE Jiehong, YE Tian. Characteristics of extreme precipitation events in eastern China — a comparison of the two methods of detection. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(6):752-760

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收稿日期:2020-04-28
最后修改日期:2020-10-12
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-01-10
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