GRAPES全球四維變分同化分析場質(zhì)量的初步診斷分析

doi:10.12306/2021jms.0076

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GRAPES全球四維變分同化分析場質(zhì)量的初步診斷分析
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                        10.12306/2021jms.0076
                    
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中圖分類號:P435
基金項(xiàng)目:國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目（2021YFC3000902）

Quality diagnostic and assessment of GRAPES 4DVAR analysis

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為了深入認(rèn)識(shí)全球四維變分同化系統(tǒng)(Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System Four-Dimensional Variational, GRAPES 4DVAR)分析場質(zhì)量,利用2019年3月1日至2020年2月29日GRAPES 4DVAR 7層等壓面的高度、溫度、緯向和經(jīng)向風(fēng)等4個(gè)要素的分析場及同期ERA5再分析場資料和探空觀測資料,基于Pearson相關(guān)系數(shù)、偏差統(tǒng)計(jì)和EOF分解等多種統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法,對GRAPES 4DVAR分析場質(zhì)量進(jìn)行了評估。結(jié)果表明:(1)GRAPES 4DVAR各要素分析場與ERA5再分析場具有顯著的正相關(guān)(相關(guān)系數(shù)均通過α=0.01顯著性水平檢驗(yàn)),其中高度場和溫度場的相關(guān)系數(shù)大于0.99,風(fēng)場的相關(guān)系數(shù)大于0.85,GRAPES 4DVAR分析場和ERA5再分析場與探空觀測的均方根偏差值的大小及分布相似,表明GRAPES 4DVAR同化分析場具有較高的質(zhì)量,且北半球和南半球的分析質(zhì)量優(yōu)于熱帶地區(qū);(2)GRAPES 4DVAR溫度和風(fēng)的分析場與ERA5再分析場在北半球和南半球的偏差存在較明顯的季節(jié)變化和空間變化,表現(xiàn)為夏半年偏差小于冬半年,中層偏差小于低層和高層,且在對流層低層(高層),南半球(熱帶地區(qū))的偏差大于北半球和熱帶地區(qū)(南半球);(3)不同要素分析偏差的特征顯示,溫度分析偏差主要出現(xiàn)在對流層低層,極大值區(qū)位于北極和南極地區(qū),而風(fēng)場分析偏差主要位于對流層中高層,極大值區(qū)主要分布于青藏高原、非洲大陸西部及北部、東太平洋及大西洋赤道附近區(qū)域。

Abstract:

To insight into the analysis quality of GRAPES 4DVAR, by using Pearsons correlation coefficient, deviation statistics and EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) analysis, the GRAPES 4DVAR analysis quality for a detailed and thorough assessment was evaluated, based on GRAPES 4DVAR geopotential height, temperature, zonal wind and meridian wind analysis, ERA5 reanalysis and radiosonde from March 1, 2019 to February 29, 2020. Results show that (1) GRAPES 4DVAR analysis has a significant positive correlation with ERA5 reanalysis (the correlation coefficients all pass the 0.01 significance level test), among which, the correlation coefficients of geopotential height and temperature analysis are more than 0.99, meanwhile, the root mean square error differences between GRAPES 4DVAR analysis, ERA5 reanalysis and radiosonde are similar, indicating that GRAPES 4DVAR analysis is comparable to ERA5 reanalysis with high quality, especially in Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), these analysis quality is better than tropics. (2) Some differences between GRAPES 4DVAR temperature, wind analysis and ERA5 reanalysis changed in different seasons, in general, the analysis difference of summer months in NH and SH is smaller than in winter months. Moreover, analysis difference in the middle troposphere between GRAPES 4DVAR analysis and ERA5 reanalysis is smaller than in the low and high troposphere, to be specific, the analysis difference in SH is greater than NH and tropics in the low troposphere, on the other hand, the analysis difference in tropics is greater than NH and SH in the high troposphere. (3) In addition, temperature analysis differences mainly occur in the NH and SH Pole in the low troposphere, additionally, wind analysis differences mainly spread in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, west and northern part of Africa, East Pacific and Atlantic East near the equator in the high troposphere.

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劉昕,陳靜,朱躍建,陳法敬,馬雅楠,王靜. GRAPES全球四維變分同化分析場質(zhì)量的初步診斷分析.氣象科學(xué),2021,41(6):804-817 LIU Xin, CHEN Jing, ZHU Yuejian, CHEN Fajing, MA Yanan, WANG Jing. Quality diagnostic and assessment of GRAPES 4DVAR analysis. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2021,41(6):804-817

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收稿日期:2021-08-04
最后修改日期:2021-08-21
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2022-01-10
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